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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Expectations for Thursday's ECB decision are firmly anchored at no change. Wednesday saw a slight decrease in the expected rate path, despite stronger-than-expected German IFO data somewhat tempering Tuesday's PMI disappointment.
- There's about 4bp more depo rate cuts expected over the course of the next year (48bp to Oct 2024 vs 44bp yest) with peak in Dec 2023 seen about 1-2bp lower compared with Tuesday's close.
- Our ECB meeting preview is here.
BoE implied peak pricing meanwhile drifted slightly higher Wednesday, with few catalysts evident in the session, and again, largely ignoring longer-end bond gyrations.
- There's around 9bp of further BoE hikes seen in the cycle to a Feb 2024 peak (up 1bp from yesterday), with the November meeting pricing under 8% probability of a 25bp hike. The first full 25bp cut is not seen cumulatively priced until September 2024.
Source: BBG ,MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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