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AUSSIE BONDS: Unchanged On A Typical Pre-US Payrolls Friday

AUSSIE BONDS
Bullet

ACGBs (YM flat & XM flat) are flat after dealing in narrow ranges on a data-light pre-US Payrolls Friday.

  • Cash US tsys are slightly mixed, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of US Payrolls data. Payroll growth is expected to bounce sharply to 215k in November after October’s strike and weather-related disruption.
  • Analysts are split on whether to call for a 4.1% or 4.2% unemployment rate in November after the 4.145% in October. The FOMC’s dovish shift to a 4.4% forecast for 4Q24 will likely be undershot.
  • We expect a soft payrolls report to cement expectations of a 25bp cut from the FOMC on Dec 18 (currently 18.5bp priced) whilst a strong report would see next week’s CPI as the decider. (See MNI US Payrolls Preview here)
  • The Federal Reserve enters its self-imposed blackout period at midnight today through December 19.
  • Cash ACGBs are unchanged with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are little changed.
  • The bills strip is flat across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until May.
  • On Monday, the local calendar is empty apart from AOFM’s planned sale of A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond. 
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM flat) are flat after dealing in narrow ranges on a data-light pre-US Payrolls Friday.

  • Cash US tsys are slightly mixed, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of US Payrolls data. Payroll growth is expected to bounce sharply to 215k in November after October’s strike and weather-related disruption.
  • Analysts are split on whether to call for a 4.1% or 4.2% unemployment rate in November after the 4.145% in October. The FOMC’s dovish shift to a 4.4% forecast for 4Q24 will likely be undershot.
  • We expect a soft payrolls report to cement expectations of a 25bp cut from the FOMC on Dec 18 (currently 18.5bp priced) whilst a strong report would see next week’s CPI as the decider. (See MNI US Payrolls Preview here)
  • The Federal Reserve enters its self-imposed blackout period at midnight today through December 19.
  • Cash ACGBs are unchanged with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are little changed.
  • The bills strip is flat across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until May.
  • On Monday, the local calendar is empty apart from AOFM’s planned sale of A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond.