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ARGENTINA: Underlying Inflation Pressures Continue To Ease, Feb Budget Balance

ARGENTINA
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  • CPI inflation came in marginally above expectations in February, with headline prices rising by 2.4% m/m, following a 2.2% gain in January. Consensus was 2.3%. In annual terms, headline inflation slowed to 66.9% y/y, from 84.5%, close to consensus. The slight pick-up in monthly inflation was driven by meat prices, which jumped by 7.5% m/m. JP Morgan notes that excluding meat, inflation would have printed at 1.7% m/m, compared to 2.15% in January and the 2.25% last three months’ average. Meanwhile, core ex-food inflation printed at 2.4% m/m, down from 2.5% the month before.
  • Looking ahead, JPM sees March monthly inflation tracking at 2.2% m/m, albeit with downside risks given an announcement of a reduction in clothing and footwear tariffs from Finance Minister Caputo on Friday. Also after the data on Friday, President Milei said that inflation could be below 2% m/m in April and May.
  • This week, budget balance figures for February will be published later today, ahead of Q4 GDP and February trade on Wednesday and Q4 unemployment data on Thursday. Analysts see GDP rising by a further 1.3% q/q in Q4, lifting annual growth to +1.7% y/y.
    • Feb. Budget Balance, prior 2.435t pesos
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  • CPI inflation came in marginally above expectations in February, with headline prices rising by 2.4% m/m, following a 2.2% gain in January. Consensus was 2.3%. In annual terms, headline inflation slowed to 66.9% y/y, from 84.5%, close to consensus. The slight pick-up in monthly inflation was driven by meat prices, which jumped by 7.5% m/m. JP Morgan notes that excluding meat, inflation would have printed at 1.7% m/m, compared to 2.15% in January and the 2.25% last three months’ average. Meanwhile, core ex-food inflation printed at 2.4% m/m, down from 2.5% the month before.
  • Looking ahead, JPM sees March monthly inflation tracking at 2.2% m/m, albeit with downside risks given an announcement of a reduction in clothing and footwear tariffs from Finance Minister Caputo on Friday. Also after the data on Friday, President Milei said that inflation could be below 2% m/m in April and May.
  • This week, budget balance figures for February will be published later today, ahead of Q4 GDP and February trade on Wednesday and Q4 unemployment data on Thursday. Analysts see GDP rising by a further 1.3% q/q in Q4, lifting annual growth to +1.7% y/y.
    • Feb. Budget Balance, prior 2.435t pesos