May 17, 2024 04:31 GMT
Underperformance Against US Tsys Continues, BoJ Held Bond Buying Steady
JGBS
JGB futures sit off session highs. JBM4 was around 144.09, -.18 in latest dealings. Earlier we got to 144.19 as the BoJ bond buying ops were unchanged, with some market concern we could have seen another reduction (as was the case for Monday's session). The US Tsy futures trend in the 10yr has been very steady today.
- More broadly we sit within recent ranges for JGB futures, albeit slightly towards the bottom end of ranges for the past month.
- US-JP yield differentials sit comfortably off April highs. The 10yr spread around +343bps, the 2yr spread around +444bps. Focus will remain on the BoJ outlook and the potential for curbing of bond purchases.
- On this point, the latest from our Tokyo policy team notes: "The Bank of Japan is concerned the market could interpret any reduction to its Japanese government bond buying programme as an attempt to curb yen weakness and a sign of earlier-than-expected rate hikes, and will hold off plans to shrink its purchases until stability returns to the foreign-exchange market, MNI understands." (see this link for more details).
- For cash JGB yields, we sit higher in yield terms, the 10yr pushing back up to around 0.94%, while the 20-40yr tenors have seen +2bps gains today. The 10yr swap rate holds above 0.99%.
- Next week focus is likely to largely rest on Friday's national CPI print.
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