Unemployment Increases In February, But 3MMA Steady

The Italian February unemployment rate was 7.5%, above the nine-analyst consensus of 7.2%. January’s print was revised one tenth higher to 7.3%. The 3MMA of the unemployment rate was steady at 7.4% though, and has fallen from a cycle peak of 10.2% in April 2021.

• On balance, the labour market remains tight by historical standards, and the combination of wage pressures (e.g as suggested by the PMIs) and sluggish productivity growth may counter the disinflationary forces indicated by the March EC/ISTAT surveys.
• The increase in unemployment in February was driven by those 15-24 years old (22.8% vs 22.1% prior) and 25-34 years old (10.0% vs 9.5% prior).
• The employment rate was steady at 62%, while the 3M/3M SAAR of employment growth ticked a touch lower to 1.1% (vs 1.4% prior).
• Looking ahead, the EC’s expected employment metrics in the March business surveys were expansionary across industries. The overall Expected Employment Indicator was steady at 106.4 (though remains a touch below the 2023 average of 108.1).
• Retail trade saw the highest expected employment metric, at 14.9 (vs 14.9 in February and 10.9 in January).