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Unemployment Rate Climbs Further On Supply Rebound

US DATA
  • The unemployment rate was stronger than expected as it increased to 4.05% in June (cons 4.0 with some skew to a 3.9 print).
  • The 4.1 rounding on screens exaggerates the increase, but it's another 0.1pp increase from 3.96% in May and 3.86% in April.
  • Household employment did indeed bounce, but only +116k after -408k. The labor force meanwhile +277k after -250k (all sa changes).
  • The participation rate increased from 62.53 to 62.59% (as expected, cons 62.6) but it came with another fresh post-2002 high for prime age participation at 83.7%.
  • Perhaps more surprisingly was no bounce in the 55+ cohort for participation, holds at a post-pandemic low for 2.1pps below pre-pandemic levels (although the continued climb in equities is certainly not hurting 401ks).

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