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Unemployment Rate Falls, But So Does Job-To-Applicant Ratio

JAPAN DATA
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Japan June jobs data showed a slight downtick in the unemployment rate to 2.5%, from 2.6% prior, while the consensus forecast was also 2.6%. The job to applicant ratio was 1.23, versus 1.24 forecast (prior was also 1.24).

  • In terms of the detail, the number people employed rose +250k m/m, following last month's 100k rise. This reverses the negative trend seen through March-April.
  • The participation rate also firmed to 63.7%, a fresh cycle high.
  • Still, the downtick in the new-job-to-applicant ratio was less positive. The chart below shows this index inverted against the unemployment rate.
  • This is fresh lows in the job to applicant ratio back to early 2022. It suggests some caution around the better jobless rate data.
  • In terms of the detail, total applicants rose 0.6%m/m, but job offers fell 0.1%m/m. These trends were replicated in y/y terms. Job offers were -4.4% y/y.

Fig 1: Japan Unemployment Rate Edges Down, Defying Lower Job To Applicant Ratio (Inverted)

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Japan June jobs data showed a slight downtick in the unemployment rate to 2.5%, from 2.6% prior, while the consensus forecast was also 2.6%. The job to applicant ratio was 1.23, versus 1.24 forecast (prior was also 1.24).

  • In terms of the detail, the number people employed rose +250k m/m, following last month's 100k rise. This reverses the negative trend seen through March-April.
  • The participation rate also firmed to 63.7%, a fresh cycle high.
  • Still, the downtick in the new-job-to-applicant ratio was less positive. The chart below shows this index inverted against the unemployment rate.
  • This is fresh lows in the job to applicant ratio back to early 2022. It suggests some caution around the better jobless rate data.
  • In terms of the detail, total applicants rose 0.6%m/m, but job offers fell 0.1%m/m. These trends were replicated in y/y terms. Job offers were -4.4% y/y.

Fig 1: Japan Unemployment Rate Edges Down, Defying Lower Job To Applicant Ratio (Inverted)

Keep reading...Show less