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Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish

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Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High

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'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate

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Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • This morning, Labor Minister published that Czech jobless rate fell to 3.3% in November, down from 3.4% the previous month.
  • Yesterday morning, economic data showed that the industrial output fell more than expected in October by 7.4% YoY (vs. -6.8% exp.), down from -4% the previous month.
  • Foreign Trade deficit came in bigger than expected at -18.2bn CZK (vs. -14.5bn exp.), down from revised -15bn CZK.
  • We have seen recently that sentiment indicators have been falling in recent months amid rising uncertainty over the economic outlook. For instance, the chart shows that Czech consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since March 2021 in November.
  • CNB chief economist Petr Kral said in a recent interview that the CNB will continue its tightening cycle despite rising uncertainty and expects the terminal rate to exceed the so-called ‘neutral’ level in the end of the cycle.
  • Kral added that the widening interest rate differential should benefit the CZK (relative to EUR) and therefore help tame inflation.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI