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Unemployment Rate Stable, But Vacancies Falling

NORWAY

Norway's seasonally adjusted unemployment claims rate remained steady at 1.9% - the 5th consecutive month at this level.

  • This puts unemployment in line with Norges Bank's Q4 2023 forecast of 1.91%. The bank expects the labour market to weaken through 2024 as dampened economic activity weighs on employment growth. Q4 2024 unemployment is seen at 2.24%.
  • The Q4 Regional Network survey indicated as much, with firms in all sectors other than oil services expecting negative or very low employment growth in Q1 2025.
  • On the demand side, the Q4 Network survey saw a fall in the number of firms indicating labour shortages while this month's data from NAV indicates vacancies fell by 3% Y/Y in December. Both contribute to loosening pressures on the labour market.
  • The claims data follows a slight increase in the November LFS unemployment rate to 3.7% (vs 3.6% prior). The wedge between the unemployment claims and LFS rates has generally been between 1.5-2ppts in recent years.

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