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Unemployment Rate Steady At Multi-Year Lows

ITALY DATA
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The Italian January unemployment rate was in line with consensus and steady vs December at 7.2%. The less volatile 3mma of the unemployment rate fell to 7.30% (vs 7.44% prior), the fifth consecutive monthly fall.

  • Next week's national accounts data will provide an insight into the development of unit labour costs, allowing us to examine the extent to which labour market tightness (via the multi-year low unemployment rate) is being translated into increased cost pressures for firms.
  • The employment rate fell a touch to 61.8% (vs 62.0% prior), while employment momentum (calculated as the 3m/3m saar of employed person) fell to 1.5% (vs 2.5% in January).
  • Looking ahead, the EC's expected employment indicator (released on Wednesday) fell to 106.4 in February (vs 107.5 prior), remaining below the 2023 average of 108.1. Expected employment rose amongst retailers but fell for services providers in both surveys.
  • Additionally, the EC's labour hoarding indicator reversed January's fall to rise back to 8.4 (vs 7.7 in Jan, 8.4 in Dec), rising in all industries other than services.

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The Italian January unemployment rate was in line with consensus and steady vs December at 7.2%. The less volatile 3mma of the unemployment rate fell to 7.30% (vs 7.44% prior), the fifth consecutive monthly fall.

  • Next week's national accounts data will provide an insight into the development of unit labour costs, allowing us to examine the extent to which labour market tightness (via the multi-year low unemployment rate) is being translated into increased cost pressures for firms.
  • The employment rate fell a touch to 61.8% (vs 62.0% prior), while employment momentum (calculated as the 3m/3m saar of employed person) fell to 1.5% (vs 2.5% in January).
  • Looking ahead, the EC's expected employment indicator (released on Wednesday) fell to 106.4 in February (vs 107.5 prior), remaining below the 2023 average of 108.1. Expected employment rose amongst retailers but fell for services providers in both surveys.
  • Additionally, the EC's labour hoarding indicator reversed January's fall to rise back to 8.4 (vs 7.7 in Jan, 8.4 in Dec), rising in all industries other than services.