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Unemployment Remains Above Riksbank Forecast


The SA Swedish unemployment rate from the LFS printed in line with consensus at 7.9%, while September's print was revised up to 8.2% (vs 8.1% prior). While pulling back from August/September's figures, unemployment remains substantially higher than July's 7.1% print, above the Riksbank's Q3 2023 forecast of 7.56% in the September monetary policy report and above the prints seen through the first half of 2023. However, the rate sits just below the Riksbank Q4 forecast of 8.01%.

  • The unemployment claims rate from the Public Employment service (released on Tuesday) also rose in October to 6.46% (vs 6.39% prior).
  • The statistics office notes that October sees "a subdued state on the labour market with few major changes", indicating the data is unlikely to substantially alter the direction of Riksbank policy at next week's meeting.
  • On the margin though, the upticks in unemployment seen over the past months are an argument for doves to keep the policy rate on hold.
  • SEK has reacted somewhat accordingly, weakening slightly with USDSEK up 0.15% and EURSEK up almost 0.1% following the release.

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