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Unemployment Steady; Projected to Rise Gradually

EUROZONE DATA
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The Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at its all-time low of 6.5% in March, as expected. The rate was the lowest in Germany and Malta, both at 3.2% (both 3.2% prior) and the higest in Spain at 11.7% (vs 11.8% prior).

  • This also brings the Q1 average print in at 6.5%, in line with the median estimate of MNI's collation of large sellside analysts (see chart below).
  • Going forward, the rate is projected to tick up to 6.7% during Q2, where it is projected to remain until mid-2025. The underlying forecasts were not majorly revised during the last three months.
  • Looking ahead at the labour market more generally, the Eurozone employment expectations indicator, which summarises managers’ employment plans and thus indicates of changes in expected dependent employment has been gradually ticking lower for the past few monnths but remained in expansionary territory, and stands at 101.8 for April (102.5 March).
  • Along with the unemployment expectations, this suggests the Eurozone labour market will likely remain relatively tight in the coming quarters.


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The Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at its all-time low of 6.5% in March, as expected. The rate was the lowest in Germany and Malta, both at 3.2% (both 3.2% prior) and the higest in Spain at 11.7% (vs 11.8% prior).

  • This also brings the Q1 average print in at 6.5%, in line with the median estimate of MNI's collation of large sellside analysts (see chart below).
  • Going forward, the rate is projected to tick up to 6.7% during Q2, where it is projected to remain until mid-2025. The underlying forecasts were not majorly revised during the last three months.
  • Looking ahead at the labour market more generally, the Eurozone employment expectations indicator, which summarises managers’ employment plans and thus indicates of changes in expected dependent employment has been gradually ticking lower for the past few monnths but remained in expansionary territory, and stands at 101.8 for April (102.5 March).
  • Along with the unemployment expectations, this suggests the Eurozone labour market will likely remain relatively tight in the coming quarters.


Keep reading...Show less