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Corrective Bounce


Timeline of key events (Times GMT)


Testing Its 50-Day EMA


Timeline of key events (Times GMT)


Resumes Its Downtrend


Bears Pause For Breath

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Spot USD/CNH has paid little attention to China's data, which proved to be a mixed bag. Q3 GDP growth registered virtually un line with expectations, while monthly economic activity indicators included a beat in retail sales coupled with a miss in industrial output. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower to 4.9% from 5.1%.

  • USD/CNH last sits at CNH6.4322, 24 pips lower on the day. Oct 15 low of CNH6.4222 draws initial bearish attention and a break here would shift focus to Jun 16 low of CNH6.3903. Bulls need a bounce above Oct 12 high of CNH6.4644 to regain poise.
  • Participants scrutinised comments from PBOC Gov Yi, who played down potential for a wider spillover from the Evergrande crisis, reassuring investors that the central bank can contain this risk.
  • The PBOC fix fell virtually in line with expectations today. China's central bank set their USD/CNY mid-point at CNY6.4300, sell-side estimate stood just 1 pip above that level.
  • Looking ahead, Wednesday will see the release of China's new home prices as well as the next fixing of the PBOC's Loan Prime Rates.