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UniCredit: Expecting Key Rate To Reach 8% By October

HUNGARY
  • UniCredit expects the NBH to increase the policy rate by 50bp to 6.40% on Tuesday.
  • While the move has been well signaled by Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag, a larger rate hike is possible if pressure on the HUF increases from here on.
  • The NBH has the option to intervene in the FX market and mop up HUF liquidity, which could lift short-term implied rates without the need of a larger rate hike.
  • The NBH is the only Central European central bank that prepared markets for rate hikes above 7%, and we expect the key rate to reach 8% by October.
  • There are material risks of more rate hikes if fiscal policy does not tighten.
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