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UniCredit: MPC to pause raising rates for some time now

BOE
  • Yesterday's “decision to hike was not a big surprise, although we had expected the MPC to refrain from raising rates until February in response to the spread of the Omicron variant and after several hawkish MPC members had recently suggested the option value of waiting was high. In our view, the rise in COVID-19 cases is likely to force the MPC to pause raising rates for some time, although it will probably be able to do one more hike before the end of next year.”
  • “Eight MPC members were concerned that not hiking rates today might cause inflation expectations to drift up, given the high current level of inflation and that the “output gap appeared to be closed””
  • “In our view, the MPC should probably have waited a little bit longer before raising rates. The UK economy was already slowing materially before the Omicron variant was identified… and the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases along with a significant squeeze in real disposable income… low consumer confidence and slightly tighter monetary policy will likely all make for a difficult few months ahead. We think these headwinds will likely force the MPC to pause raising rates for some time now, although it will probably be able to do one more hike before the end of next year.”
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