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UniCredit on CRBT Decision

TURKEY
  • The CBRT will likely leave its policy rate unchanged, at 14%.
  • According to its April Inflation Report, the central bank expects inflation to rise further in May (from 70% yoy in April), before starting to decelerate gradually thereafter.
  • As usual, the CBRT’s forecast looks too optimistic. UniCredit thinks the upward trend in inflation will continue until November, with increased risk of testing the triple-digit level before then.
  • However, a monetary policy response to further pressure remains unlikely due to political pressure to keep rates low in the hope that this will boost economic growth.
  • Meanwhile, the authorities will continue to rely on reserves to intervene in the FX market and avoid additional inflationary pressure from exchange-rate passthrough.
  • However, the TRY’s recent performance has shown that this strategy is challenged amid a rising current account deficit and weaker global risk sentiment.
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  • The CBRT will likely leave its policy rate unchanged, at 14%.
  • According to its April Inflation Report, the central bank expects inflation to rise further in May (from 70% yoy in April), before starting to decelerate gradually thereafter.
  • As usual, the CBRT’s forecast looks too optimistic. UniCredit thinks the upward trend in inflation will continue until November, with increased risk of testing the triple-digit level before then.
  • However, a monetary policy response to further pressure remains unlikely due to political pressure to keep rates low in the hope that this will boost economic growth.
  • Meanwhile, the authorities will continue to rely on reserves to intervene in the FX market and avoid additional inflationary pressure from exchange-rate passthrough.
  • However, the TRY’s recent performance has shown that this strategy is challenged amid a rising current account deficit and weaker global risk sentiment.