Unwinding Some Recent Outperformance, BI Has No Plans For Further Rate Hikes

USD/IDR got to 14765/70 earlier, but we no sit back at 14735, still around +0.25% weaker in IDR terms versus levels from the close yesterday. This is fresh highs for the month. Note the 20-day EMA is around 14819. We haven't been above this resistance point since March. Recent YTD lows came in sub 14600.

• Comments from BI Governor Warjiyo late yesterday that the central bank will be patient before weighing rate cuts may be weighing at the margin. The Governor added it will monitor economic data month-to-month and has no plans to raise interest rates again. Still, the IDR was expected to strengthen further when the Fed pauses monetary tightening according to BI.
• On the data front, Apr consumer confidence rose to 126.1 from 123.3, highs back to mid last year.
• Cross asset wise, local equities are around flat so far today, after falling 0.27% yesterday. The index has only risen one trading day in May so far. Offshore investors sold -$31.4mn of local shares yesterday. Bond inflows were firm to the end of last week though (+$167.6mn on Friday).
• The better commodity price backdrop should be IDR supportive, although the recent sell-off didn't weigh on IDR so current correlations aren't that strong. Palm oil prices are holding close to recent highs ~MYR4084.