UPDATE: MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Jan PSNB, Dec Labour Data

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:20 GMT Feb 19/07:20 EST Feb 19

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Wednesday will see the simultaneous release of both the

December/January UK labour market data and the January public sector finances

data.

     On the labour front, little change in the key metrics are expected. The

unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at its joint 42-year low of

4.3% while a slight softening in headline wage growth is also pencilled in. 

     That being said, should we be dealt a punchy change in employment (3m/3m)

it could present the remote chance of a further fall in the unemployment rate.

Two of the thirteen analysts polled follow this line of thought, forecasting the

jobless rate having fallen to 4.2% in December. 

     Estimates for the change in the employment level range from as low as

120,000 3m/3m to as high as 250,000 3m/3m.   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                          Dec

                         Dec                Dec           ILO                Dec

                         Avg

                      Weekly         Avg Weekly  Unemployment  Employment Change

                    Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus          rate              3m/3m

                    3m % YoY           3m % YoY          3m %              '000s

Date Out              21-Feb             21-Feb        21-Feb             21-Feb

Median                   2.4                2.4           4.3              180.0

Forecast High            2.6                2.5           4.3              250.0

Forecast Low             2.3                2.4           4.2              120.0

Standard

Deviation                0.1                0.0           0.0               52.9

Count                     11                  8            13                  5

Prior                    2.5                2.4           4.3              102.0

Bayern                   N/A                2.4           4.3                N/A

Berenberg                2.5                N/A           4.3              197.0

Capital Economics        2.5                2.5           4.2              180.0

Credit Suisse            N/A                2.5           4.3                N/A

Commerzbank              2.5                N/A           4.3                N/A

Investec                 2.3                N/A           4.3                N/A

JP Morgan                2.4                N/A           4.3              120.0

Lloyds TSB               2.6                2.4           4.3              250.0

Nomura                   2.4                2.4           4.3                N/A

Oxford Economics         2.4                2.4           4.3                N/A

Pantheon                 2.5                N/A           4.3                N/A

Societe Generale         2.4                2.4           4.2                N/A

UniCredit                2.4                2.4           4.3              130.0

     After proving surprisingly resilient so far this fiscal year, the public

sector finances picture will deteriorate in January and February. Last year, an

increase in taxes on dividends applying to FY2016/17 led to forestalling, with

payments of both dividends and taxes brought forward. While boosting the surplus

at the turn of 2017, the unfortunate implication is for a drag on this January's

surplus. 

     On balance, analysts expect a borrowing balance of -stg9.0bn, more than

stg2.0bn below the stg11.6bn surplus recorded the same time last year, with the

surplus forecast ranging anywehere from as low as stg7.0bn to as high as

st10.8bn. 

------------------------------------

                                 Jan

                    Public Finances-

                             PSNB ex

                              stg bn

Date Out                      21-Feb

Median                          -9.0

Forecast High                   -7.0

Forecast Low                   -10.8

Standard Deviation               1.2

Count                              8

Prior                            2.6

Capital Economics               -7.0

Investec                        -9.3

JP Morgan                       -8.6

Lloyds TSB                      -9.5

Nomura                          -8.0

Oxford Economics                -7.8

Pantheon                        -9.5

Societe Generale               -10.8

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]