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Update: Yield Curves Remain Steeper, Fed Terminal Falls to 5.575%

US TSYS
  • Treasury yield curves continue to climb steeper as short end rates match the post-30Y auction rally in the long end (despite the tail: 3.877% high yield vs. 3.870% WI).
  • Treasury June'23 2Y futures: TUM3 +11.25 at 101-21.62 (2Y yield falls to 4.8784% after breaching 5.08% earlier in the week. 2s10s yield curve climbs over 11bp to -97.043 high vs. -110.917 inverted low yesterday (1981 low).
  • Broad based buying/position unwinds noted ahead of Friday's key non-farm payrolls data (current mean estimate of +225k).
  • Short-end metrics: Most notably Fed terminal rate has fallen to 5.54% in Sep-23-Oct'23 vs. 5.69% high overnight.
  • Fed funds implied hikes recede with Mar'23 at 38.2bp (-4.5), May'23 cumulative 71.4bp (-4.7) to 5.290%, Jun'23 90.7bp (-4.5) to 5.483%.
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