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Updated Sell-Side Analyst Ests' for Dec Employ Figures

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Median estimate for December job gains climbed +42k to +442k after the release of more hawkish than anticipated minutes from the Dec FOMC yesterday; not to mention Wed's ADP private jobs overshoot of +807k vs. +410k est). Sell-side analysts have in turn adjusted their estimates higher:
  • RBS/NatWest: Anticipate the "report as a whole to be healthy" as the drag from Omicron occurred after the latest data set. NatWest estimates Dec jobs gain of 500k noting "softer-than-expected November increase in nonfarm payrolls and the fact that other employment-related indicators continued to show strength."
  • Up-revision for Nov wouldn't be a surprise NatWest added as "payroll revisions in general tend to be positively correlated with the underlying trend in payroll growth, which is exceptionally strong.
  • TD Securities: Also estimate +500k jobs survey period missed the rise in Omicron, while the Nov read "appeared to be held down by an overly aggressive seasonal adjustment factor."
  • TD added "rates market is arguably priced for a good report but the market is skittish given the hawkish message from the December FOMC minutes" remaining "long 2y Treasuries and short 10y real rates."
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