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Upside Gains Limited As China's NPC Comes Into Focus

IRON ORE

Iron ore prices, per active Singapore futures, track near $113.40/ton in latest dealings. The benchmark has been unable to sustain upside through the latter stages of Feb and early March. Recent moves above $117/ton have drawn selling interest. We sit over 13% below mid Feb highs. We haven't been able to breach the simple 200-day MA on the downside though (near $112.2/ton).

  • Focus this week will rest on the China NPC and any steps the authorities announce to boost the housing market, along with infrastructure.
  • No 'big-bang' stimulus is expected, particularly around China's property sector. However, sell-side analysts have mixed views around the outlook for the commodity as we progress through this quarter and next (see this link from the AFR).
  • On the supply side, iron ore inventories at China ports continued to climb to early March. We are now back to early April levels from last year.
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