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Upside Momentum In EGBs Continues; Gilts Remain The Outperformer

BONDS

Core/semi-core EGBs have continued firming into the early European afternoon, with Bunds and OATs trading near the day's highest levels. The Gilt rally lost some steam in the hours following the lower-than-expected November CPI print, but has since trended back higher, still shy of session bests.

  • There has been little notable headline flow since the UK CPI print. European participants look next to ECB's Lane at 1400GMT.
  • That leaves Gilts up 88 ticks at 102.83 (from a high of 103.08) and Bunds up 53 ticks at 137.93. 138.00 provides the initial round number resistance for Bund, after which 138.49 (3.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing) will be eyed.
  • BoE-dated OIS contract rate pricing has moderated a touch from dovish extremes, but still shows 139bps of cuts through 2024. ECB cut pricing has continued to extend, with 163bps of cuts priced through 2024.
  • Cash curves continue to bull steepen, with 2Y Gilt yields down -15.2bp today at 4.112%. Periphery EGBs remain wider to Bunds, with the exception of Greece.
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