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Upside Risks to US Gasoline Prices Ahead of Driving Season

OIL PRODUCTS

US gasoline cracks have drifted lower over the last week but are still holding onto significant gains seen so far this year with US gasoline to shortly move to the lower RVP summer grade.

  • US gasoline imports from Europe in the week ending 30 Mar increased to the highest since the late Feb according to bills of lading and ship-tracking data from Bloomberg. European gasoline arrivals in the US increased to 196kbpd.
  • OPEC cuts and lower imports from Europe are an upside risk to US gasoline prices as seasonal demand is expected to increase over the upcoming driving season. European gasoline exports to the US are expected to decline by as much as 100kbpd from March to April due to the French strikes and Russian sanctions according to Wood Mackenzie.
  • The unexpected shutdown of the gasoline unit at BP’s Rotterdam refinery may further restrict European exports to US.
    • US 321 crack up 0.3$/bbl at 34.59$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 35.84$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 32.08$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.9$/bbl at 19.45$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.6$/bbl at 18.67$/bbl


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