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US 10s30s at lows of the week

BOND SUMMARY

European cash markets opened lower this morning, with yields moving higher, after yesterday's comments from the Fed's Powell that were less dovish than some market participants had expected. Since the open, however, there has been little movement in European cash yields but there have been decent declines in US yields.

  • Looking at US yield curves, 10s30s has seen the most directional move today, now down to 74bp, down another 1.3bp or so since the NY close, around 6.6bp off the highs of the week and through the week's lows. 5s30s has been fairly stable for the past couple of days, but 2s10s has steepened from 128bp on Wednesday to around 141bp at writing (with over half of that move after Powell's comments). The 2s10s curve has been stable in European trading today, however.
  • Looking ahead, the focus will remain on the US with the employment report due to be released later. Consensus looks for payrolls to come in just shy of 200k with the unemployment rate staying steady at 6.3%.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-0+ today at 132-13 with 10y UST yields down -1.7bp at 1.549% and 2y yields down -1.0bp at 0.136%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.23 today at 171.16 with 10y Bund yields up 1.2bp at -0.301% and Schatz yields up 0.1bp at -0.692%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.37 today at 128.33 with 10y yields up 3.3bp at 0.762% and 2y yields up 2.5bp at 0.098%.

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