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US 10s30s moving to new highs

BOND SUMMARY

Bunds and gilts are under pressure again this morning (but remain above yesterday's lows) while 10-year Treasuries are largely in line with yesterday's close.

  • Possibly the most interesting move of the day is the continued steepening in the US 10s30s curve. Today we reached a peak of 82.2bp according to Bloomberg generic data, not far from the 83.1bp spike seen as markets became dysfunctional in March 2020. Prior to this we would need to go back to November 2016 to see the 10s30s curve this steep.
  • With the exception of UK labour market data (which should some tentatively positive signs in the real-time experimental PAYE payroll employment data), there has been little top tier first print data this morning. The highlight of the US session is probably the Conference Board consumer confidence data.
  • Overall, however, focus will likely be on Powell's testimony to the Senate.
  • TY1 futures are down flat today at 135-11 with 10y UST yields unch at 1.366% and 2y yields down -0.1bp at 0.112%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.59 today at 174.13 with 10y Bund yields up 3.2bp at -0.308% and Schatz yields up 0.3bp at -0.690%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.45 today at 129.76 with 10y yields up 4.1bp at 0.718% and 2y yields up 1.1bp at 0.045%.

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