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US And UK Each Pricing In One-Third Chance Of 50bp March Hike


Both the US and UK OIS are pricing in 33bp of hikes at the respective Fed (Mar 16) and BoE (Mar 17) March decisions - roughly a 1/3 chance of a 50bp versus a 25bp hike.

  • Since Feb 10 the US has gone from fully pricing in 50bp and then some, down to 27bp overnight following the Presidents' Day Holiday, before bouncing back today.
  • UK pricing reached 48bp on Feb 11 and has faded since then, returning to the lowest since early Feb today.
  • Will be interesting to see which is more highly priced going into the Fed meeting.
  • A Fed 50bp hike looks unlikely unless we get very strong Feb inflation data between now and then, though Gov Bowman's comments yesterday appeared to bring it back into the conversation; BoE 50bp was faded following comments by Ramsden this morning that markets took to imply he may not cast a 50bp hike vote again next month.

OIS Implied Rate Change By March Policy Meeting (perc. pt)Bloomberg

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