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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Both the US and UK OIS are pricing in 33bp of hikes at the respective Fed (Mar 16) and BoE (Mar 17) March decisions - roughly a 1/3 chance of a 50bp versus a 25bp hike.
- Since Feb 10 the US has gone from fully pricing in 50bp and then some, down to 27bp overnight following the Presidents' Day Holiday, before bouncing back today.
- UK pricing reached 48bp on Feb 11 and has faded since then, returning to the lowest since early Feb today.
- Will be interesting to see which is more highly priced going into the Fed meeting.
- A Fed 50bp hike looks unlikely unless we get very strong Feb inflation data between now and then, though Gov Bowman's comments yesterday appeared to bring it back into the conversation; BoE 50bp was faded following comments by Ramsden this morning that markets took to imply he may not cast a 50bp hike vote again next month.
OIS Implied Rate Change By March Policy Meeting (perc. pt)Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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