US Consumers Shrugging Off "Peak" Misery Better Than Europeans (3/3)

US consumers have better shrugged off miserable conditions than their Eurozone counterparts - as we've noted before, Eurozone and UK consumer activity is at/below trend and declining while US consumption remains above trend.

• And the charts below show that US consumers have been more confident than their misery level has historically suggested - perhaps indicating that consumption fundamentals have remained strong (high savings etc), whereas in contrast, Eurozone consumer confidence has been largely what one would expect given high and rising misery.
• Consensus economic forecasts for 2023 suggest that we are at "peak" misery, but relief will be varied.
• In the US, CPI is set to match the unemployment rate (4.3% each) for a 8.6% misery index next year vs 11.6% last month, while in the Eurozone, misery is seen remaining elevated at 13% (5.8% with 7.2% unemployment), down from 17.3%.
• While those are improvements, they are stagflationary by most standards - meaning pressure on consumers is likely to persist.

Source: Conference Board, Eurostat, MNI calculations based on nat'l stats