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US CPI [2/2] - Potential Reactions

US PREVIEW
  • Looking at core inflation more generally, there is an unusual distribution to the Bloomberg survey which we see as skewing risk towards an upside surprise to the median estimate of 0.5%.
  • 17 respondents look for 0.4%, 17 look for 0.5%, 12 look for 0.6% and 12 look for 0.7%. Deutsche and GS are at the high end of the forecast range and see rent and OER inflation at a strong +0.4% M/M – further detail on other drivers below.
  • The persistence of the market reaction to a beat or miss will obviously depend on the contributions behind it.
  • If a beat is led by shelter or other relatively sticky items, the market could have greater confidence in pricing in three hikes in 2022 (currently ~2.75 hikes priced) and Treasuries would potentially bear flatten. This would be a change for Eurodollars where most of the recent moves have come further out along the curve.
  • Alternatively, we would fade a beat if driven by idiosyncratic factors.
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