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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS
- Cash Tsys have seen a sizeable bull steepening with the front end seeing follow-through from yesterday’s US CPI miss as Treasuries underperform EU and UK FI so far today. Those bids in European FI markets have aided the move along with technical breaks plus some notable flow including a 17K block buy in FV futures (~$728K DV01).
- The further impetus sees 2Y yields -10.5bp on the day at 4.64% for almost 50bps below their YtD peak of 5.12% registered just one week ago. Behind this latest 2Y move, Fed Funds still price a 22bp hike for July but there’s now just a cumulative +28bp to a Nov peak (firmly against the June dot plot of two hikes) whilst cuts to Dec’24 have built to almost 160bps. That's from 147bp at yesterday’s close, 133bp before CPI and 120bp before Friday’s payrolls.
- 2YY -10.5bp at 4.641%, 5YY -8.4bp at 3.989%, 10YY -4.5bp at 3.812%, 30YY -1.3bp at 3.934%. 2s10s of -83bps sit close to highs since mid-June.
- TYU3 trades 12+ ticks higher at 112-21 on solid volumes of 340k, just off its earlier high of 112-24+. It starts to near a key resistance point at the 50-day EMA of 113-12, with a break required to strength the bullish theme.
- Data: PPI Jun (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Monthly budget statement Jun (1400ET)
- Fedspeak: Daly (’24 voter) CNBC interview (1110ET), Fed Gov Waller on economic outlook (1845ET, incl text)
- Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $18B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810TR9) – 1300ET
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 4W, $60B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
2y Tsy yieldSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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