US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: PPI, Import/Export Prices, IP/Cap-U

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 23:40 GMT Jan 13/18:40 EST Jan 13

CHICAGO (MNI) - The ongoing partial government shutdown continues to limit data

releases. Data that will almost certainly will NOT be released next week: Retail

Sales, Business Inventories and Housing Starts.

Any data that was already prepped before the shutdown started could be released

with little delay whenever the shutdown ends. However, any data that was being

worked on when the shutdown started or had not been started will be delayed well

beyond their scheduled dates. 

Funding for the Department of Labor has already been approved through September

2019, so releases from the Department itself and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

are unaffected by the partial shutdown, ergo PPI will be released as scheduled.

Addressing economic and monetary policy outlook multiple Fed speakers kick off

Tuesday with Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, Dallas

Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan and Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank

President Esther George.

MN Fed president Kashkari speaks again on Wednesday followed by Federal Reserve

Board of Governors Vice Chairman Randal Quarles on Thursday and New York Federal

Reserve Bank President John Williams on Friday.

TD Securities will be paying particular attention to Williams on Friday. "Recall

Williams gave a dovish reprise to Powell's Dec press conference two days later."

TD expect Williams "to repeat a soothing message of a patient and data dependent

Fed. While his message won't be new, we still expect a dovish market reaction."

Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions include 13W and 26W bills Monday, 10Y TIPS on

Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Slow start with NY Fed Consumer Sentiment; 13- and 26W bill auctions.

Nomura economists said the Consumer Sentiment survey for December "will be

important in terms of evaluating the persistence of the sharp decline in

November's earnings growth expectations (-0.4pp to 2.0%)."

Nomura notes however, that "consumer fundamentals in the survey, including

spending growth expectations, remain in healthy territory, consistent with our

view that consumers spending will continue to anchor economic growth over the

near term."

- Tuesday: Producer Price Index for December (-0.1%); January Empire

Manufacturing Index (7.5); 12-Jan Redbook retail sales m/m.

Morgan Stanley economists see core PPI (ex food, energy, and trade services)

"rising 0.25% in December and headline PPI up 0.12%." MS said that their

forecasts "are consistent with headline PPI rising on a year-over-year basis

(NSA) to 2.8%Y from 2.5% and core PPI rising to 3.0%Y from 2.8%Y."

On regional Fed manufacturing surveys, RBS economists said Tuesday's Empire

State and Thursday's Philly Fed survey, "will likely get some added attention in

the wake of the reported plunge in the national ISM reading from December.

- Wednesday: imports (-1.3%) and exports price index for December; Jan NY Fed

Business Leaders Index.

Nomura economists said import prices likely declined last month, citing the

"sharp declines in energy prices. Excluding petroleum products, we expect muted

import price inflation considering the lagged impact of past appreciation of

USD."

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; Jan Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

(9.0) 

- Friday: Industrial production (0.0%) and Capacity Utilization (78.3%) for

December; Michigan sentiment index (p) (97.5).

"After industrial production rose a strong 0.6% in November," MS economists said

they "expect a more modest gain of 0.2% in December."

TD Securities economists said anticipate IP growth to decelerate to 0.1% m/m in

December from 0.6% before. The monthly IP deceleration will likely reflect a

mean-reverting decline in the utilities segment following November's 3.3% m/m

jump. That said, IP growth should close the year at a solid 3.6% annual pace."

On Sentiment, RBS economists said while they anticipate consumers to remain

upbeat in 2019, "headline Michigan index may have edged a tad lower in the first

two weeks of the month, perhaps to around 97.5 from December's 98.3 reading."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

14-Jan 1100 Jan NY Fed expectations survey

14-Jan 1130 US Tsys $39B 13W bill auction (912796RH4)

14-Jan 1130 US Tsys $36B 26W bill auction (912796QR3)

15-Jan 0830 Dec Final Demand PPI (0.1%, -0.1%)

15-Jan 0830 Dec PPI ex. food and energy (0.3%, 0.2%)

15-Jan 0830 Dec PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.3%, --)

15-Jan 0830 Jan Empire Manufacturing Index (10.9, 7.5)

15-Jan 0855 12-Jan Redbook retail sales m/m (0.8%, --)

15-Jan 1000 Jan IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (52.6, --)

15-Jan 1130 MN Fed Pres Kashkari, Rochester Eco Summit, Q&A

15-Jan 1300 KC Fed Pres George, econ/mon-pol outlook, KC, MO, Q&A

15-Jan 1300 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, Plano CoC Annl Meet, TX, Q&A

16-Jan 0700 11-Jan MBA Mortgage Applications (23.5%, --)

16-Jan 0830 Dec imports price index (-1.6%, -1.3%)

16-Jan 0830 Dec exports price index (-0.9%, --)

16-Jan 0830 Jan NY Fed Business Leaders Index (5.6, --)

16-Jan 1830 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, Intel Squared Debate "10 Yrs After Global

Fincl Crisis, System is Safer," NY, NY

16-Jan 1000 Jan NAHB home builder index (56, --)

16-Jan 1000 Jan Atlanta Fed inflation (2.3%, --)

16-Jan 1030 11-Jan crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-1680m bbl, --)

17-Jan 0830 12-Jan jobless claims (216k, --)

17-Jan 0830 Jan Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (9.1, 9.0)

17-Jan 1030 11-Jan natural gas stocks w/w

17-Jan 1300 US Tsys $13B 10Y TIPS auction (9128285W6)

17-Jan 1630 16-Jan Fed weekly securities holdings

18-Jan 0905 NY Fed Pres Williams, econ outlook/mon-pol, New Jersey Bankers Assn,

Economic Leadership Forum in Somerset, NJ, audience Q&A

18-Jan 0915 Dec industrial production (0.6%, 0.0%)

18-Jan 0915 Dec capacity utilization (78.5%, 78.3%)

18-Jan 1000 Jan Michigan sentiment index (p) (98.3, 97.5)

18-Jan 1000 Dec BLS state payrolls

18-Jan 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+2.71%, --)

18-Jan 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.48%, --)

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]