US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Big Week Ahead With FOMC, PMI, NFP

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT Apr 28/18:40 EST Apr 28

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Big week ahead for economic data and monetary policy

releases:

     Chicago PMI and Conference Board confidence kicks things off Tuesday, ahead

the start of the two day FOMC policy meeting.

     ADP private employ data early Wednesday with the Fed's policy announcement

in the afternoon. Weekly claims, unit labor costs and factory orders and on

Thursday followed by nonfarm and private payrolls data sets early Friday.

     Nomura economists anticipate a "largely uneventful" FOMC meeting, "but see

room for a post-meeting statement and press conference to focus attention on the

underperformance of inflation. We think core PCE inflation will decelerate to a

pace of 1.6% y-o-y in March, down from 1.8% in December and after a period of

briefly reaching the Fed's symmetric 2.0% target earlier in 2018."

     To round out the week, the Federal Reserve exits their media blackout with

Chicago Fed President Evans on global economies from Stockholm on Friday

followed by NY Fed President Williams on monetary policy and lower bound

interest rates from Stanford. 

     Later Friday evening, Fed Presidents James Bullard, Mary Daly, Robert

Kaplan, and Loretta Mester at a panel event on monetary policy in Stanford.

     U.S. Treasury auctions are limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday and 4-

and 8W bills on Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

     - Monday: March personal income; current dollar Personal Consumption

Expenditures, total and core PCE indexes; Dallas Fed manufacturing index for

April; 13- and 26W bill auctions.

     Morgan Stanley economists estimate a decent 0.8% rise in March personal

income while March core PCE inflation should "rise 0.10%M, rounding down to 1.6%

on a year-over-year basis in March."

     - Tuesday: Q1 ECI; Redbook retail sales m/m; ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index;

Case-Shiller Home Price Index; MNI Chicago PMI; NAR pending home sales index;

Conference Board confidence; Dallas Fed services index; FOMC policy meeting

kicks off.

     Barclays economists expect the Conference Board's index of consumer

confidence "to have increased to 125.0 in April, following a sharp drop in

March. At this level, the index would be consistent with a healthy level of

confidence, albeit lower than last year's average level. Consumers have remained

broadly upbeat about their income prospects given tight labor markets, and we

see this as continuing to support confidence in the coming months."

     - Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; ADP private payrolls; Quarterly

Refunding; Markit Mfg Index (final); construction spending; ISM Manufacturing

Index; NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR; FOMC policy announcement.

     "Consistent with our forecast for the April BLS employment report," Nomura

expects the April ADP report "to show a 185k increase in private payroll

employment."

     - Thursday: Challenger layoff plans; weekly claims; non-farm productivity

and unit labor costs; ISM-NY current conditions; factory new orders; Fed weekly

securities holdings.

     - Friday: Nonfarm and private payrolls; unemployment rate; avg hourly

earnings; advance goods trade, advance wholesale and retail inventories; Markit

Services Index; ISM Non-manufacturing Index; StL and NY Fed GDP Nowcasts.

     Morgan Stanley economists estimate April jobs gain 233,000 "boosted by

Census Bureau hiring. Excluding the expected jump in government payrolls, we

expect private payrolls to rise 194,000, which would represent a robust pace of

hiring on top of the 182,000 gain in private payrolls in March."

     Barclays expect nonfarm payrolls "to rise by 200k on the month and for

private payrolls to increase by 190k. Factors influencing our forecast include

initial jobless claims data, which moved to new recovery-level lows in March."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

29-Apr 0830 Mar personal income (0.2%, 0.4%)

29-Apr 0830 Mar current dollar PCE (0.1%, 0.3%)

29-Apr 0830 Mar total PCE price index (-0.1%, --)

29-Apr 0830 Mar core PCE price index (0.1%, 0.1%)

29-Apr 1030 Apr Dallas Fed manufacturing index (8.3, --)

29-Apr 1130 US TSY $39B 13W bill auction (912796SB6)

29-Apr 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SQ3)

30-Apr ---- FOMC policy meeting day 1

30-Apr 0830 Q1 ECI (0.7%, 0.8%)

30-Apr 0855 27-Apr Redbook retail sales m/m (1.2%, --)

30-Apr 0900 Apr ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (50.05, --)

30-Apr 0900 Feb Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0.1, --)

30-Apr 0945 Apr MNI Chicago PMI (58.7, 59.7)

30-Apr 1000 Mar NAR pending home sales index (101.9, --)

30-Apr 1000 Apr Conference Board confidence (124.1, 126.5)

30-Apr 1030 Apr Dallas Fed services index (-4.4, --)

30-Apr 1500 Mar farm prices

01-May ---- FOMC policy meeting day 2

01-May  -   Apr NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR

01-May 0700 26-Apr MBA Mortgage Applications (-7.3%, --)

01-May 0815 Apr ADP private payrolls (129k, --)

01-May 0945 Apr Markit Mfg Index (final) (52.4, --)

01-May 1000 Mar construction spending (1.0%, 0.2%)

01-May 1000 Apr ISM Manufacturing Index (55.3, 55.2)

01-May 1030 26-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

01-May 1300 FOMC policy announcement

02-May 0730 Apr challenger layoff plans (0.4%, --)

02-May 0830 27-Apr jobless claims (230k, 210k)

02-May 0830 Q1 non-farm productivity (p) (1.9%, 1.0%)

02-May 0830 Q1 unit labor costs (p) (2.0%, 2.2%)

02-May 0945 Apr ISM-NY current conditions (66.9, --)

02-May 1000 Mar factory new orders (-0.5%, 1.1%)

02-May 1000 Mar factory orders ex transport (0.3%, --)

02-May 1030 26-Apr natural gas stocks w/w

02-May 1630 01-May Fed weekly securities holdings

03-May 0830 Apr nonfarm payrolls (196k, 190k)

03-May 0830 Apr private payrolls (182k, 180k)

03-May 0830 Apr unemployment rate (3.8%, 3.8%)

03-May 0830 Apr average hourly earnings (0.1%, 0.3%)

03-May 0830 Apr average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs)

03-May 0830 Apr advance goods trade gap

03-May 0830 Apr advance wholesale inventories

03-May 0830 Apr advance retail inventories

03-May 0945 Apr Markit Services Index (final) (52.9, --)

03-May 1000 Apr ISM Non-manufacturing Index (56.1, 57.3)

03-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

03-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

03-May 1015 Chi Fed Pres Evans, NABE Intl Symp: "Global Economies Crossroads:

Growing Together While Growing Apart?" Stockholm, Sweden, audience Q&A.

03-May 1345 NY Fed Pres Williams, "Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules,

Lower Bound on Int Rates", Hoover Inst Stanford Univ, California.

03-May 1945 Fed Res Presidents James Bullard, Mary Daly, Robert Kaplan, and

Loretta Mester; panel event "Strategies For Monetary Policy", Stanford, Q&A

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]