US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Fed Enters Media Blackout; Q1 GDP Adv Fri

CHICAGO (MNI) - Friday's Q1 GDP headlining an otherwise quiet week ahead for

data,  while the Federal Reserve entered their media blackout on Saturday April

20 and runs through May 2.

U.S. Treasury auctions: 13- and 26W bills on Monday, 52W bills and 2Y notes on

Tuesday, 2Y FRN and 5Y notes Wednesday and rounding out the week with the 7Y

note auction on Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Existing home sales for March.

Scotiabank economists posit Existing home sales are "likely to take back some of

the almost 12% rise" Monday while Tuesday's new home sales may gain "after a 5%

rise in February".

- Tuesday: April Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg and Richmond Fed Mfg Index; Redbook

retail sales m/m; several housing price, sale and building data; 

- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications for April; crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w.

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; March durable goods; housing vacancies rate;

Kansas City Fed Mfg Index. 

Morgan Stanley economists look for durable goods orders excluding transportation

equipment "to soften by 0.1% in March, given the modest decline in durable goods

manufacturing in the March industrial production report. Overall durable goods

orders, meanwhile, post a modest 0.5% rebound in our forecasts following the

1.6% drop in February."

- Friday: Q1 GDP (advance); Apr Michigan sentiment index; Q2 St. Louis and New

York Fed GDP Nowcasts.

On the top end of the range, TD Securities economists estimate GDP "to advance

2.3% q/q saar in Q1, largely keeping with the economy's Q4 pace. Despite a

notable slowdown in consumer spending, we anticipate an offsetting shift from

negative to positive contributions for net exports and government spending.

Notably, residential investment likely contributed positively to growth for the

first time since 2017."

CIBC economists are in line with MNI survey estimate of 1.8% Q1 GDP decline from

2.2% prior, citing "higher interest rates, and slower global growth" and

potentially "amplified by the government shutdown and residual seasonality that

is still prevalent in the data according to research done by the Cleveland Fed."

CIBC forward estimates a "strong labor market and higher wages should drive a

rebound in consumption in Q2, helping growth jump back up temporarily. However,

with higher interest rates holding back business investment, and the labor

market reaching full capacity, that strength should prove short lived."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

22-Apr 1000 Mar existing home sales (5.51m, 5.36m)

22-Apr 1130 US TSY $42B 13W bill auction (912796SA8)

22-Apr 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SP5)

23-Apr 0830 Apr Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Index (21.7, --)

23-Apr 0855 20-Apr Redbook retail sales m/m (0.7%, --)

23-Apr 0900 Feb FHFA Home Price Index (0.6%, --)

23-Apr 0900 Mar bldg permits revision

23-Apr 1000 Mar new home sales (667k, 645k)

23-Apr 1000 Apr Richmond Fed Mfg Index (10, --)

23-Apr 1130 US TSY $26B 52W bill auction (912796QR3)

23-Apr 1300 U.S. TSY $40B 2Y note auction (9128286P0)

24-Apr 0700 19-Apr MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.5%, --)

24-Apr 1030 19-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-1.4m bbl, --)

24-Apr 1130 US TSY $20B 2Y FRN note auction (9128286Q8)

24-Apr 1300 U.S. TSY $41B 5Y note auction (9128286R6)

25-Apr 0830 20-Apr jobless claims (201.25k, 196k)

25-Apr 0830 Mar durable goods new orders (-1.6%, 0.8%)

25-Apr 0830 Mar durable new orders ex transport (0.1%, 0.3%)

25-Apr 1000 Q1 housing vacancies rate

25-Apr 1030 19-Apr natural gas stocks w/w

25-Apr 1100 Apr Kansas City Fed Mfg Index

25-Apr 1630 24-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings

25-Apr 1300 U.S. TSY $32B 7Y note auction (9128286S4)

26-Apr 0830 Q1 GDP (adv) (2.2%, 1.8%)

26-Apr 0830 Q1 GDP Price Index (1.7%, 1.8%)

26-Apr 1000 Apr Michigan sentiment index (f) (96.9, 97.3)

26-Apr 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

26-Apr 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

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