US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Policy Focus (FOMC, BOE, Norges, SNB)

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Central bank watch in the week ahead with the FOMC policy

announcement on Wednesday, BoE, Norges and SNB on Thursday.

     Just to spice things up a little bit, the UK will have a third "meaningful

vote in the House of Commons, date not set yet but ahead of March 20 "Article

50" trigger deadline.

     US Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell to hold a news conference

following the March 19th-20th FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed media blackout

period that kicked off March 9 will run through March 21.

     That said, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will

discuss his economic outlook, monetary policy and answer audience questions

Friday at the San Francisco Fed's Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference

in San Francisco.

     U.S. Treasury auctions are limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday and the

4-week and 8-week auctions on Thursday. The Treasury will announce details over

the 2Y, 5Y and 7Y note auctions on Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: March NY Fed Business Leaders Index; March NAHB home builder index;

Kansas City Fed LMCI for February. 

Nomura economists say "home builder sentiment likely improved slightly in March

owing to the recent stabilization of long-term mortgage rates around 4.4% and

some evidence of increased buyer activity at the beginning of the year. We

expect the NAHB's housing market index to increase slightly to 63 in March from

62 in February."

- Tuesday: Redbook retail sales; Jan factory new orders; FOMC meeting day one of

two.

Barclay economists "expect overall factory orders to have moved up only modestly

in January, mostly due to strength in the volatile nondefense aircraft category.

We look for the durables categories - including core capital goods orders - to

show little change from the mixed readings in the advance print." 

- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; crude oil stocks; FOMC policy

announcement followed by Fed chairman Powell news conference.

After softer data, ANZ economists expect the "Fed meeting to produce a modest

downgrade to growth and inflation for 2019," mildly lower points on the dot plot

and some specifics over the balance sheet "given that many Fed officials would

like to see an end to QT later in the year." 

TD Securities expect dots to show one rate hike in 2019 and "potentially no

additional hikes in 2020." TD also expects to see further details on size and

timing of balance sheet run-off either in the statement or at Powell's presser.

"Look for a neutral market reaction, as outright rate cuts are priced for 2019,"

TD adds.

- Thursday: Weekly claims; March Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index; Leading Indicators

for February; natural gas stocks; Fed weekly securities holdings for March.

Morgan Stanley economists "forecast a 0.1% rise in the Conference Board's

leading index in February following a flat reading in January. Supporting the

index will be a rebound in consumer confidence, rising stock prices, and the

yield curve."

- Friday: Markit Manufacturing and Service Index for March; February existing

home sales; BLS state payrolls; wholesale inventories and sales; Atlanta Fed

President Bostic at econ-outlook, mon/pol conference in San Francisco. 

After three consecutive weaker reads, Morgan Stanley economists "look for

existing home sales to rise 1.9% to a sales pace of 5.03 million. Further out,

purchases of existing home will likely resume their decline as inventory

shortages continue to restrain activity in the market."

Danske Bank economists "still think Markit manufacturing PMI will stabilize, so

we expect the manufacturing index to come in at 54, up from 53."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

18-Mar 0830 Mar NY Fed Business Leaders Index (13.7, --)

18-Mar 1000 Mar NAHB home builder index (62.0, --)

18-Mar 1100 Feb Kansas City Fed LMCI (0.97, --)

18-Mar 1130 US TSY $48B 13W bill auction (912796QM4)

18-Mar 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796SJ9)

19-Mar 0855 16-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m

19-Mar 1000 Jan factory new orders (0.1%, 0.2%)

19-Mar 1000 Jan factory orders ex transport (-0.6%, --)

19-Mar      FOMC policy meeting, in Washington

20-Mar 0700 15-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications (+2.3%, --)

20-Mar 1030 15-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

20-Mar 1400 FOMC policy announcement

20-Mar 1430 Fed Chair Powell policy news conference

21-Mar 0830 16-Mar jobless claims (229k, 225k)

21-Mar 0830 Mar Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (-4.1, 7.0)

21-Mar 1000 Q4 Service Revenue

21-Mar 1000 Feb leading indicators (0.0%, 0.1%)

21-Mar 1030 15-Mar natural gas stocks w/w

21-Mar 1630 20-Mar Fed weekly securities holdings

22-Mar 0945 Mar Markit Mfg Index (flash) (53.0, --)

22-Mar 0945 Mar Markit Services Index (flash)

22-Mar 1000 Feb existing home sales (4.94m, 5.11)

22-Mar 1000 Feb BLS state payrolls

22-Mar 1000 Jan wholesale inventories (1.1%, 0.7%)

22-Mar 1000 Jan wholesale sales (-1.0%, --)

22-Mar 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

22-Mar 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

22-Mar 1400 Feb Treasury budget balance (-228.5B)

22-Mar 2130 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, econ-outlook, mon/pol conf, SF, Q&A

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]