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CHICAGO (MNI) - A short week with the extended Easter holiday weekend, slow
start with Thursday seeing the largest data drop on a shortened session ahead
Friday's close.
There are multiple Fed speakers ahead the start of the media blackout Saturday
include Chicago Fed President Evans and Boston Fed President Rosengren on
Monday, Dallas Fed President Kaplan Tuesday, St Louis Fed President Bullard,
Philly Fed President Harker and NY Fed Sn VP Logan on Wednesday.
U.S. Treasury auctions are limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday.
Salient data highlights (estimates):
- Monday: April Empire Manufacturing Index; February net TICS flows; 13- and 26W
bill auctions.
- Tuesday: April NY Fed Business Leaders Index; Redbook retail sales; March
industrial production and capacity utilization; NAHB home builder index for
Barclays economists estimate "overall IP will edge up 0.1% m/m in March after
having registered no material change in February. The topline reading is mainly
driven by developments in the manufacturing sector, where we expect production
to inch up 0.1% following February's 0.3% decline."
- Wednesday: February trade balance, wholesale inventories and sales; Fed Beige
Book for upcoming FOMC.
- Thursday: February business inventories; weekly claims; March retail sales;
Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index; April Markit Mfg and Services Indexes; February
business inventories; March leading indicators.
On core retail sales, Morgan Stanley economists estimate a "0.3%
month-over-month gain" and a "1.1% gain in headline retail sales, which would be
the largest since last May. Excluding autos, sales should rise 0.7%, still a
very strong gain."
Nomura economists also estimate retail sales of "0.3% m-o-m. However, we see
continued downside risk for the retail sector. Incoming data on aggregate hours
worked and anecdotal evidence from business surveys on activity in the retail
sector remain weak." 
Nomura adds that "while core retail sales have rebounded somewhat since a sharp
fall in December, the recovery remains partial. It appears that growth in
personal consumption slowed markedly in Q1."
- Friday: Markets are closed for Easter weekend, nevertheless March housing
starts and building permits will be released, as will March BLS state payrolls,
St. Louis and NY Fed Real GDP Nowcasts.
Note, the Federal Reserve's media blackout start Saturday April 20 and runs
through May 2.
Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):
15-Apr 0830 Apr Empire Manufacturing Index (3.7, 8.0)
15-Apr 0830 Chi Fed Pres Evans, CNBC's Squawk Box
15-Apr 1130 US TSY $42B 13W bill auction (912796QR3)
15-Apr 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SN0)
15-Apr 1300 Chi Fed Pres Evans, economy/mon-pol, QA
15-Apr 1600 Feb net TICS flows
15-Apr 1600 Feb long term TICS flows
15-Apr 2000 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren, Davidson College, NC Q&A
16-Apr 0830 Apr NY Fed Business Leaders Index (10.8, --)
16-Apr 0855 13-Apr Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --)
16-Apr 0915 Mar industrial production (0.0%, 0.2%)
16-Apr 0915 Mar capacity utilization (79.1%, 79.2%)
16-Apr 1000 Apr NAHB home builder index (62.0, --)
16-Apr 1400 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, Community Forum Dal Fed, TX, Q&A
17-Apr 0700 12-Apr MBA Mortgage Apps' (-5.6%, --)
17-Apr 0830 Feb trade balance (-$51.1b, --)
17-Apr 1000 Feb wholesale inventories (1.2%, --)
17-Apr 1000 Feb wholesale sales (0.5%, --)
17-Apr 1030 12-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (7.03m bbl, --)
17-Apr 1230 StL Fed Pres Bullard, economy/mon-pol conf, NY, Q&A
17-Apr 1230 Phil Fed Pres Harker, economic outlook, NJ, Q&A
17-Apr 1400 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC, DC
17-Apr 1900 NY Fed Sn VP Logan, Money Marketeers, NY, Q&A
18-Apr 0500 Feb business inventories
18-Apr 0830 13-Apr jobless claims
18-Apr 0830 Mar retail sales (-0.2%, --)
18-Apr 0830 Mar retail sales ex. motor vehicle (-0.4%, --)
18-Apr 0830 Mar retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (-0.6%, --)
18-Apr 0830 Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (13.7, --)
18-Apr 0945 Apr Markit Mfg Index (flash)
18-Apr 0945 Apr Markit Services Index (flash) (55.3, --)
18-Apr 1000 Feb business inventories (0.8%, --)
18-Apr 1000 Mar leading indicators (0.2%, --)
18-Apr 1030 12-Apr natural gas stocks w/w
18-Apr 1630 17-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings
19-Apr 0830 Mar housing starts (1.162m, --)
19-Apr 0830 Mar building permits (1.291m, --)
19-Apr 1000 Mar BLS state payrolls (300k, --)
19-Apr 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast
19-Apr 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email:
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
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