US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Retail Sales On Short-Week Thursday

CHICAGO (MNI) - A short week with the extended Easter holiday weekend, slow

start with Thursday seeing the largest data drop on a shortened session ahead

Friday's close.

There are multiple Fed speakers ahead the start of the media blackout Saturday

include Chicago Fed President Evans and Boston Fed President Rosengren on

Monday, Dallas Fed President Kaplan Tuesday, St Louis Fed President Bullard,

Philly Fed President Harker and NY Fed Sn VP Logan on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury auctions are limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: April Empire Manufacturing Index; February net TICS flows; 13- and 26W

bill auctions.

- Tuesday: April NY Fed Business Leaders Index; Redbook retail sales; March

industrial production and capacity utilization; NAHB home builder index for

April.

Barclays economists estimate "overall IP will edge up 0.1% m/m in March after

having registered no material change in February. The topline reading is mainly

driven by developments in the manufacturing sector, where we expect production

to inch up 0.1% following February's 0.3% decline."

- Wednesday: February trade balance, wholesale inventories and sales; Fed Beige

Book for upcoming FOMC.

- Thursday: February business inventories; weekly claims; March retail sales;

Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index; April Markit Mfg and Services Indexes; February

business inventories; March leading indicators.

On core retail sales, Morgan Stanley economists estimate a "0.3%

month-over-month gain" and a "1.1% gain in headline retail sales, which would be

the largest since last May. Excluding autos, sales should rise 0.7%, still a

very strong gain."

Nomura economists also estimate retail sales of "0.3% m-o-m. However, we see

continued downside risk for the retail sector. Incoming data on aggregate hours

worked and anecdotal evidence from business surveys on activity in the retail

sector remain weak." 

Nomura adds that "while core retail sales have rebounded somewhat since a sharp

fall in December, the recovery remains partial. It appears that growth in

personal consumption slowed markedly in Q1."

- Friday: Markets are closed for Easter weekend, nevertheless March housing

starts and building permits will be released, as will March BLS state payrolls,

St. Louis and NY Fed Real GDP Nowcasts.

Note, the Federal Reserve's media blackout start Saturday April 20 and runs

through May 2.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

15-Apr 0830 Apr Empire Manufacturing Index (3.7, 8.0)

15-Apr 0830 Chi Fed Pres Evans, CNBC's Squawk Box

15-Apr 1130 US TSY $42B 13W bill auction (912796QR3)

15-Apr 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SN0)

15-Apr 1300 Chi Fed Pres Evans, economy/mon-pol, QA

15-Apr 1600 Feb net TICS flows

15-Apr 1600 Feb long term TICS flows

15-Apr 2000 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren, Davidson College, NC Q&A

16-Apr 0830 Apr NY Fed Business Leaders Index (10.8, --)

16-Apr 0855 13-Apr Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --)

16-Apr 0915 Mar industrial production (0.0%, 0.2%)

16-Apr 0915 Mar capacity utilization (79.1%, 79.2%)

16-Apr 1000 Apr NAHB home builder index (62.0, --)

16-Apr 1400 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, Community Forum Dal Fed, TX, Q&A

17-Apr 0700 12-Apr MBA Mortgage Apps' (-5.6%, --)

17-Apr 0830 Feb trade balance (-$51.1b, --)

17-Apr 1000 Feb wholesale inventories (1.2%, --)

17-Apr 1000 Feb wholesale sales (0.5%, --)

17-Apr 1030 12-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (7.03m bbl, --)

17-Apr 1230 StL Fed Pres Bullard, economy/mon-pol conf, NY, Q&A

17-Apr 1230 Phil Fed Pres Harker, economic outlook, NJ, Q&A

17-Apr 1400 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC, DC

17-Apr 1900 NY Fed Sn VP Logan, Money Marketeers, NY, Q&A

18-Apr 0500 Feb business inventories

18-Apr 0830 13-Apr jobless claims

18-Apr 0830 Mar retail sales (-0.2%, --)

18-Apr 0830 Mar retail sales ex. motor vehicle (-0.4%, --)

18-Apr 0830 Mar retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (-0.6%, --)

18-Apr 0830 Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (13.7, --)

18-Apr 0945 Apr Markit Mfg Index (flash)

18-Apr 0945 Apr Markit Services Index (flash) (55.3, --)

18-Apr 1000 Feb business inventories (0.8%, --)

18-Apr 1000 Mar leading indicators (0.2%, --)

18-Apr 1030 12-Apr natural gas stocks w/w

18-Apr 1630 17-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings

19-Apr 0830 Mar housing starts (1.162m, --)

19-Apr 0830 Mar building permits (1.291m, --)

19-Apr 1000 Mar BLS state payrolls (300k, --)

19-Apr 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

19-Apr 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]