US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Cons Confidence, Chicago PMI, Tsy Supply

CHICAGO (MNI) - Expect market activity to be muted in the week ahead, late

summer malaise hanging on with the passing of the dog days of summer around

mid-August. Mostly second-tier data in the week ahead and a dearth of

Fed-speakers so far on the heels of the prior week's annual economic symposium

in Jackson Hole.

Monday should be very quiet with no lead-in from London, markets closed for

national bank holiday (U.S. markets closed next Monday for Labor Day holiday),

data limited to Dallas Fed manufacturing index at 1030ET followed by Treasury

auctions of $51B 13-week and $45B 26-week bills at 1130ET and the $36B 2-year

note auction at 1300ET.

Data picks up Tuesday with inventory and trade gap numbers, Redbook retail

sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the release of August Consumer

Confidence, 126.5 est vs. 127.4 prior).

Barclays economists expect the consumer confidence index "to have fallen

slightly to 126.5 in August, from 127.4 previously. Nevertheless, this would be

consistent with another month of solid consumer sentiment given the continued

strength in the stock markets and improvements in labor markets.

RBS NatWest economists, on the other hand, expect consumer confidence "to have

remained mostly steady in August, as ongoing strength in the employment

situation may have continued to offset concerns over tariffs."

Tuesday includes the second leg of Treasury supply with the $37B 5-year note

auction followed by $17B 1Y11M FRN and $31B 7-year note auctions on Wednesday. 

Aside from largely second-tier and weekly data rounding out the week, MNI's

Chicago PMI report is out on Friday, still expanding at 63.0 est, but scaling

back from 65.5 prior read. 

Barclays economists cautioned that "recent policies aimed at putting tariffs on

imports from China are likely to negatively affect manufacturing sentiment as

captured by the regional and national surveys, in our view."

Calendar of next week's market data and events (prior, estimate): 

- Aug 27 Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing index (32.3, --) 1030ET

- Aug 27 US TSY $45B 26W BILL Auction (912796QL6) 1130ET

- Aug 27 US TSY $51B 13W BILL Auction (912796PT0) 1130ET

- Aug 27 US TSY $36.000 BLN 2Y NOTE Auction (9128284Y3) 1300ET

- Aug 28 Jul advance goods trade gap (-$67.9B, --) 0830ET

- Aug 28 Jul advance wholesale inventories 0830ET

- Aug 28 Jul advance retail inventories 0830ET

- Aug 28 25-Aug Redbook retail sales m/m (0.2%, --) 0855ET

- Aug 28 Jun Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0.2, --) 0900ET

- Aug 28 Aug Richmond Fed Mfg Index (20, --) 1000ET

- Aug 28 Aug Conference Board confidence (127.4, 126.5) 1000ET

- Aug 28 Aug Dallas Fed services index (21.1, --) 1030ET

- Aug 28 US TSY $37B 5Y NOTES Auction (9128284X5) 1300ET

- Aug 29 24-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications (4.2%, --) 0700ET

- Aug 29 Q2 GDP (2nd) (4.1%, 4.0%) 0830ET

- Aug 29 Q2 GDP Price Index (3.0%, 3.0%) 0830ET

- Aug 29 Jul NAR pending home sales index (106.9, --) 1000ET

- Aug 29 24-Aug crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-5.84m bbl, --) 1030ET

- Aug 29 US TSY $17B 1Y-11M FRN NOTE Auction (9128284Y53) 1130ET

- Aug 29 US TSY $31B 7Y NOTE Auction (9128284Z0) 1300ET

- Aug 29 Jul farm prices (0.1%, --) 1500ET

- Aug 30 25-Aug jobless claims (210k, 214k) 0830ET

- Aug 30 Jul personal income (0.4%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- Aug 30 Jul current dollar PCE (0.4%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Aug 30 Jul total PCE price index (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Aug 30 Jul core PCE price index (0.1%, --) 0830ET

- Aug 30 26-Aug Bloomberg comfort index (58.6, --) 0945ET

- Aug 30 24-Aug natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Aug 30 29-Aug Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Aug 31 Aug ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (61.66, --) 0900ET

- Aug 31 Aug MNI Chicago PMI (65.5, 63.0) 0945ET

- Aug 31 Aug Michigan sentiment index (f) (95.3, 95.3) 1000ET

- Aug 31 Q3 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- Aug 31 Q3 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]