US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Fed Speakers Busy Ahead Next Blackout

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Multiple Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled throughout

the week, the last opportunity to answer monetary policy questions before the

media black-out period between April 21 to May 3).

     Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic at the Shoals Chamber

of Commerce in Florence, Alabama, with audience Q&A on Monday.

     San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams, Philadelphia

Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker and Chicago Federal Reserve Bank

President Charles Evans speak at separate events Tuesday.

     Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles also

speaks Tuesday, providing a semi-annual testimony before the House Financial

Services Committee.

     New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will participate in

a conversation on the State of the Economy in New York on Wednesday while

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will speak at the

University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte

LLP Thursday.

     Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans and San Francisco

Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams round out the week at separate

events Friday.

     Deutsche Bank economists said they will be listening closely for "hints on

how policymakers' views may be evolving."

     DB noted the March FOMC minutes included a statement that "[s]ome

participants suggested that, at some point, it might become necessary to revise

statement language to acknowledge that ... monetary policy eventually would

likely gradually move from an accommodative stance to being a neutral or

retraining factor for economic activity".

     DB said the "passage may be foreshadowing upcoming tweaks to the Fed's

guidance language, in particular removing 'for some time' from their

characterization of the period for which the policy stance would be considered

accommodative."

     Meanwhile, data for the week ahead starts off with March retail sales

(-0.1% prior, 0.3% estimate) Monday morning at 0830ET.

     Housing related data includes NAHB home builder index Monday at 1000ET,

March housing starts/building permits (1.262M est, 1.311M est respectively) at

0830ET Tuesday, MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET Wednesday).

     March industrial production (0.3% est) and capacity utilization (77.9% est)

come out at 0915ET Wednesday followed by weekly jobless claims (229K est)

Thursday at 0830ET.

     The International Monetary Fund will release their World Economic Outlook

on Tuesday at 0900ET.

     On the upcoming data, DB said Monday's retail sales "will be the main focus

as they will crystalize expectations for Q1 consumer spending." They estimate

headline retail sales to climb +0.5%, rebounding "on the back of sturdy unit

motor vehicle sales following three consecutive months of declines."

     DB adds "elevated homebuilding sentiment should bode well for Tuesday's

data on March housing starts (1.250 million vs. 1.236 million) and building

permits (1.330 million vs. 1.321 million), although similar to retail sales, we

are cognizant of potential weather-related issues."

     Morgan Stanley economists expect an "underwhelming rebound in retail sales"

of 0.2% for March to be "accompanied by upward revisions to February and/or

January. Combined with a 1.0% decline in gas station sales, a 1.5% increase for

autos and a 0.3% gain in home improvement stores."

     On Tuesday's industrial production MS looks "for a modest 0.2% increase -

after the stronger-than-expected 1.1% gain in February," while they "expect

utility output to be flat from the prior month."

     Meanwhile, Nomura economists "expect core ("control") retail sales to

increase strongly by 0.5% m-o-m, following the two previous readings of 0.1% and

0%. Consumer sentiment remains elevated, notwithstanding a slight trade-related

decline in the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer survey for April."

     Monthly Fed reinvestment caps consistent with the FOMC Sept. 20 decision

and June 2017 addendum:

MONTHLY CAPS ON SOMA SECURITIES REDUCTIONS

US TREASURIES.../AGENCY MBS/MONTH CAP 

- Oct-Dec 2017.. $6 billion./$4 billion 

- Jan-Mar 2018.. $12 billion/$8 billion 

- Apr-Jun 2018 $18 billion../$12 billion 

- Jul-Sep 2018 $24 billion../$16 billion 

- From Oct 2018** $30 billion $20 billion

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate): 

- Apr 16 Mar retail sales (-0.1%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- Apr 16 Mar retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.2%, 0.1%) 0830ET

- Apr 16 Mar retail sales ex. motor veh, gas (0.3%, --) 0830ET

- Apr 16 Apr Empire Manufacturing Index (22.5, 18.5%) 0830ET

- Apr 16 Feb business inventories (0.6%, 0.6%) 1000ET

- Apr 16 Apr NAHB home builder index (70, --) 1000ET

- Apr 16 Mar Kansas City Fed LMCI 110ET

- Apr 16 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Shoals CoC, Florence, Alabama, Q&A, 1315ET

- Apr 16 Feb net TICS flows 1600ET

- Apr 16 Feb long term TICS flows 1600ET

- Apr 17 Mar housing starts (1.236M, 1.262M) 0830ET

- Apr 17 Mar building permits (1.321M, 1.311M) 0830ET

- Apr 17 Apr NY Fed Business Leaders Index (11.2, --) 0830ET

- Apr 17 14-Apr Redbook retail sales m/m (0.3%, --) 0855ET

- Apr 17 International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook. 0900ET

- Apr 17 SF Fed Pres Williams NABE-Bank of Spain, Madrid, Q&A. 0915ET

- Apr 17 Mar industrial production (0.9%, 0.3%) 0915ET

- Apr 17 Mar capacity utilization (77.7%, 77.9%) 0915ET

- Apr 17 Fed Vice Chair/Supervision Gov Randal Quarles, semi-annual testimony

House Financial Services Comm 1000ET

- Apr 17 Phil Fed Pres Harker, Saint Joseph Univ, Philadelphia, Q&A. 1100ET

- Apr 17 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Chicago Rotary Club Luncheon, Q&A. 1340ET

- Apr 18 13-Apr MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.9%, --) 0700ET

- Apr 18 13-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (3.31m bbl, --) 1030ET

- Apr 18 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC, 1400ET

- Apr 18 NY Fed Pres Dudley on State of Economy, NY, Q&A. 1500ET

- Apr 19 14-Apr jobless claims (233K, 229K) 0830ET

- Apr 19 Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (22.3, 20.5) 0830ET

- Apr 19 15-Apr Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Apr 19 Mar leading indicators (0.6%, 0.3) 1000ET

- Apr 19 13-Apr natural gas stocks w/w (-19Bcf, --) 1030ET

- Apr 19 5Y TIPS Auction 1300ET

- Apr 19 18-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Apr 19 Clev Fed Pres Mester, Univ of Pittsburgh/Joseph M. Katz Graduate School

of Business and Deloitte LLP in Pittsburgh, Q&A. 1845ET

- Apr 20 Chi Fed Pres Evans Graaskamp Cnt Spring Brd Conf, Chicago, Q&A, 0940ET

- Apr 20 Mar BLS state payrolls (351.8k, --) 1000ET

- Apr 20 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (1.97%, --) 1100ET

- Apr 20 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.8%, --) 1115ET

- Apr 20 SF Fed Pres Williams, fireside chat UC Berkeley Fischer Center for Real

Estate and Urban Economies in Pebble Beach, California. 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]