US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Heavy w/Fed Speaker Events, Retail Sales

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Despite continued global geopolitical risk (insert you

region here), trade and tariff negotiations, the surge in US$ and oil for that

matter, next week may prove to be as lethargic as the prior week.

     Risk associated with next week's retail sales, industrial production, and

housing starts should prove be relatively muted while media events from several

voting members of the Federal Reserve are also on tap.

     Credit Suisse economists "expect nominal retail sales to increase 0.3% MoM

and real retail sales to rise 0.7%...housing starts to rise 1.6% MoM in

April..." while "industrial production is likely to remain solid in April after

two months of above trend growth. We expect headline growth of 0.4% MoM, driven

by a pickup in manufacturing and continued outperformance for mining output."

     Morgan Stanley economists "look for another strong gain in April, where our

Retail Sales Tracking points to 0.4% month-over-month growth. Combined with our

forecasts for a 0.6% jump in gas station sales, a 0.5% decline for autos and a

1.0% rebound in home improvement stores, we see headline retail sales rising

0.3%. We expect ex-autos retail sales to rise 0.5%."

     MS estimates Thursday's Leading Indicators to "rise 0.5%, which would mark

the seventh consecutive gain in the index and suggest continued robust growth

through the second quarter of 2018."

     Societe Generale economists note that the latest CPI data "should give Fed

officials pause, especially given the slump in inflation last spring." 

     "In any case," Soc Gen said, "while there were clearly some outsized

declines, especially for vehicles, the breadth of gains was once again soft, and

some of the items that boosted the core will almost certainly fade. In short, it

was a very disappointing print for inflation bulls." 

     Soc Gen remains "comfortable with our sub-2% core forecast for year-end."

     Monday kicks off with several Fed speakers:

     - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester at an event in

Paris well ahead of the NY open followed by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank

Executive Vice President Mary Daly in London and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

President James Bullard in New York after the open

     - New York Federal Reserve Bank Executive Vice President Kevin Stiroh will

speak at the Financial Stability and Post-Crisis Reforms in Toronto later in the

evening.

     - On Tuesday, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan will

participate in a moderated Q&A at the C. Peter McColough Series on International

Economics in New York, followed by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President

John Williams to speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Minneapolis, with

audience Q&A.

     - Also Tuesday, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

will conduct a hearing on the nomination of Richard Clarida to be Vice Chairman

of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington.

     - Wednesday, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will

deliver an economic update at a fireside chat in August, Georgia, followed St.

Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to giving opening remarks at

the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture in St. Louis, Missouri, both with audience Q&A.

     - Thursday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will

participate in a moderated Q&A with Julie Gugin, executive director of the

Minnesota Home Ownership Center, in Saint Paul, Minnesota, followed by Dallas

Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan in a moderated Q&A at the Richardson

Chamber of Commerce in Richardson, Texas, both with audience and media Q&A.

     - Friday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will

speak at the Third Annual European Central Bank Macroprudential Policy and

Research Conference in Frankfurt with Q&A, followed by Dallas Federal Reserve

Bank President Rob Kaplan in a moderated Q&A at the 12th Annual University of

Texas at Dallas Project Management Symposium in Richardson, Texas.

Monthly Fed reinvestment caps consistent with the FOMC Sept. 20 decision and

June 2017 addendum:

MONTHLY CAPS ON SOMA SECURITIES REDUCTIONS

US TREASURIES.../AGENCY MBS/MONTH CAP 

- Oct-Dec 2017.. $6 billion./$4 billion 

- Jan-Mar 2018.. $12 billion/$8 billion 

- Apr-Jun 2018 $18 billion../$12 billion 

- Jul-Sep 2018 $24 billion../$16 billion 

- From Oct 2018** $30 billion $20 billion

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate): 

- May 14 Clev Fed Pres Mester, Global Interdependence Cntr's Central Bnk Sr's,

Paris, Q&A. 0245ET

- May 14 SF Fed Exec VP Daly, Gender and Career Progression Conf, Q&A 0845ET

- May 14 StL Fed Pres Bullard CoinDesk's Consensus 2018, NY Q&A. 0940ET

- May 14 NY Fed expectations survey 1100ET

- May 14 NY Fed Exec VP Stiroh Financial Stability/Post-Crisis Reforms in

Toronto, Q&A. 1620ET

- May 15 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, moderated Q&A at the C. Peter McColough Series on

International Economics in New York, Q&A 0800ET 

- May 15 Apr retail sales (0.6%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- May 15 Apr retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.2%, 0.6%) 0830ET

- May 15 Apr retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.3%, --) 0830ET

- May 15 May Empire Manufacturing Index (15.8, 15.4%) 0830ET

- May 15 12-May Redbook retail sales m/m (0.8%, --) 0855ET

- May 15 Senate Comm on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on

nomination of Richard Clarida to be Fed's Vice Chair of Brd of Gov's, DC 1000ET

- May 15 Mar business inventories (0.6%, 0.1%) 1000ET

- May 15 May NAHB home builder index (69, --) 1000ET

- May 15 SF Fed Pres Williams, Economic Club of Mn, Q&A Q1310ET

- May 15 Mar net TICS flows 1600ET

- May 15 Mar long term TICS flows 1600ET

- May 16 11-May MBA Mortgage Applications 0700ET

- May 16 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, eco-update/fireside chat, Georgia, Q&A, 0830ET

- May 16 Apr housing starts (1.319m, 1.318m) 0830ET

- May 16 Apr building permits (1.379m, 1.350m) 0830ET

- May 16 May NY Fed Business Leaders Index (4.1, --) 0830ET

- May 16 Atl Fed Pres Bostic eco update/fireside chat, Q&A. 0830ET

- May 16 Apr industrial production (0.5%, 0.6%) 0915ET

- May 16 Apr capacity utilization (78.0%, 78.4%) 0915ET

- May 16 May Atlanta Fed inflation (2.3%, --) 1000ET

- May 16 11-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (6.22m bbl, --) 1030ET

- May 16 StL Fed Pres Bullard opening remarks Homer Jones Memorial Lecture, StL,

Mo, Q&A. 1830ET

- May 17 12-May jobless claims (211k, 217k) 0830ET

- May 17 May Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (23.2, 20.5) 0830ET

- May 17 13-May Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- May 17 Q1 e-commerce retail sales 1000ET

- May 17 Apr leading indicators (0.3%, 0.4) 1000ET

- May 17 11-May natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- May 17 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, moderated Q&A with Julie Gugin, exec dir Mn Home

Ownership Center, Saint Paul, Mn, Q&A. 1045ET

- May 17 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, moderated Q&A, Richardson CoC, Tx, Q&A, 1330ET

- May 17 16-May Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- May 18 Clev Fed Pres Mester, 3rd Ann European Central Bank Macroprudential

Policy/Research Conf, Frankfurt, Q&A. 0300ET

- May 18 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, moderated Q&A, 12th Ann U of Texas Dallas Project

Mgt Symposium, Tx, Q&A, 0915ET

- May 18 Q1 Advance NSA Service Revenue (+2.2%, --) 1000ET

- May 18 Apr BLS state payrolls (150.1k, --) 1000ET

- May 18 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- May 18 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]