US Credit Mkt Wk Ahead: Hectic Holiday Return, FOMC Mins' Thu

     CHICAGO (MNI) - A lot to keep an eye on as the US returns from extended

Thanksgiving holiday market. Aside from data, other factors to be mindful of

include post holiday sales, month end extensions and the ever-present

sensitivity to domestic and foreign headline risk.

     Salient data releases in the week ahead include Consumer Confidence (1000ET

Tuesday), New Home Sales (1000ET Wednesday) and Personal Income and Spending

(0830ET Thursday).

     Treasury auctions kick off Monday with $39B 13W and $36B 26W bill and $39B

2Y note auctions, $40B 5Y note auction Tuesday, $18B 2Y FRN and $32B 7Y note

auctions on Wednesday. 

     Several Fed speakers on tap as the debate over the necessity of an

anticipated rate hike on December 19 while the minutes from the November 7-8

FOMC meeting will be released Thursday afternoon.

Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Slow start to busy week, Nov Dallas Fed manufacturing index, bill and

note auctions while NY Fed VP Richard Dzina will deliver keynote remarks at the

Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute's 2018 Annual Conference in New York at

1330ET.

- Tuesday: Redbook retail sales, FHFA Home Price Index, Conference Board

confidence for November (137.0 est). The US Treasury will auction 4- and 8W

bills and $40B 5Y notes.

     Morgan Stanley economists said they "expect consumer confidence to soften

just slightly in November after surging to an 18-year high in October. The usual

drivers of sentiment have been mixed in November" citing equities (weighing) and

lower gas prices (supportive).

     "Altogether, we look for confidence as measured by the Conference Board to

tick down to a reading from 137.6 from last month's 137.9."

     Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will give

keynote remarks at the Clearing House Conference breakfast in NY at 0745ET

followed by Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic

and Esther George discussion on the "economy, regulation, financial innovation,

and the future of payments" later in the day. 

- Wednesday: Wholesale inventories, GDP second estimate (3.6% est) and New home

sales (585k est). The US Treasury will auction $18B 2Y FRN and $32B 7Y notes.

     Barclays economists expect "Q3 GDP to be revised higher by a tenth, to 3.6%

q/q saar, in the second estimate" while they "forecast new home sales to have

increased 3.0%, to 570k, in October, after falling sharply the previous month." 

     US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to attend a luncheon

at the Economic Club of New York and may yield some headlines ahead Thursday's

minutes release.

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims (215k est), Personal income (0.5% est) and

current dollar PCE for October (0.5%), NAR pending home sales index. FOMC

minutes and Chicago Fed president Evans.

     Morgan Stanley economists said "upside in October average hourly earnings

along with an uptick in average weekly hours points to a strong gain in wages

and salaries boosting personal income, which we see rising 0.4% in October. As

for spending, the retail sales report pointed to a solid month for nominal

personal consumption and we look for growth of 0.4%." 

     Since the November 7-8 FOMC minutes, Societe Generale strategists note

"market expectations for three 25bps Fed rate hikes in 2019 have tumbled

sharply, dropping from around 73% to about 45%." 

     "The rapid scaling back of Fed hike expectations is said to have been due

in part to more dovish Fed-speak in the last two weeks. However, in our view,

this is a misread of Fed officials' comments." SocGen recommends "fading the

dovish re-pricing of rate hikes."

     TD Securities said they expect Fed Chair Powell "to remain cautious but

still upbeat on the US outlook, which should be hawkish given recent market

pricing (now one fewer hike in 2019). The November FOMC minutes should sound

even more optimistic, but likely be dismissed as old news.

     Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will

participate in a panel on "Collaboration for Inclusive Economic Development" at

the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston followed by audience Q&A (time permitting).

- Friday: Nov MNI Chicago PMI (58.5 est). New York Federal Reserve Bank

President John Williams rounds out the week, participating in a panel on "The

Global Economy: Addressing a Future Downturn" at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the

Group of Thirty in New York.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Nov 26 Nov Dallas Fed manufacturing index (29.4, --) 1030ET

- Nov 26 US Tsy $39B 13W bill auction (912796PT0) 1130ET

- Nov 26 US Tsy $36B 26W bill auction (912796RR2) 1130ET

- Nov 26 US Tsy $39B 2Y note auction (9128285Q9) 1300ET

- Nov 26 NY Fed VP Dzina, Clearing House/Bank Policy Inst Conf, NY 1330ET

- Nov 27 FRB Gov VC Clarida, Clearing House Conf breakfast, NY 0745ET

- Nov 27 24-Nov Redbook retail sales m/m (0.2%, --) 0855ET

- Nov 27 Sep FHFA Home Price Index (0.3%, --) 0900ET

- Nov 27 Q3 FHFA Quarterly Home Prices 0900ET

- Nov 27 Sep Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0.1, --) 0900ET

- Nov 27 Nov Conference Board confidence (137.9, 137.0) 1000ET

- Nov 27 Nov Dallas Fed services index (14.1, --) 1030ET

- Nov 27 US Tsy 4W bill auction (912796UF4) 1130ET

- Nov 27 US Tsy 8W bill auction (912796UK3) 1130ET

- Nov 27 US Tsy $40B 5Y note auction (9128285P1) 1300ET

- Nov 27 Chi Fed Pres Evans w/Raphael Bostic, Esther George, "economy, regul'n,

fncl innovation & future of payments", Clearing Hse Conf, NY 1430ET

- Nov 28 23-Nov MBA Mortgage Applications 0700ET

- Nov 28 Q3 GDP (2nd) (3.5%, 3.6%) 0830ET

- Nov 28 Q3 GDP Price Index (1.7%, 1.7%) 0830ET

- Nov 28 Oct advance goods trade gap 0830ET

- Nov 28 Oct advance wholesale inventories 0830ET

- Nov 28 Oct advance retail inventories 0830ET

- Nov 28 Oct new home sales (553k, 585k) 1000ET

- Nov 28 Oct bldg permits revision 1000ET 

- Nov 28 Nov Richmond Fed Mfg Index (15, --) 1000ET

- Nov 28 23-Nov crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (0.49m bbl, --) 1030ET

- Nov 28 Fed Chair Powell, Economic Club of NY, NY 1130ET

- Nov 28 US Tsy $18B 2Y FRN (9128285H9) 1130ET

- Nov 28 US Tsy $32B 7Y note auction (9128285N6) 1300ET

- Nov 29 24-Nov jobless claims (224k, 215k) 0830ET 

- Nov 29 Oct personal income (0.2%, 0.5%) 0830ET

- Nov 29 Oct current dollar PCE (0.4%, 0.5%) 0830ET

- Nov 29 Oct total PCE price index (0.1%, --) 0830ET

- Nov 29 083Oct core PCE price index (0.2%, --) 0830ET

- Nov 29 25-Nov Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Nov 29 Oct NAR pending home sales index (104.6, --) 1000ET

- Nov 29 23-Nov natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Nov 29 November 7-8 FOMC Minutes release 1400ET

- Nov 29 Chi Fed Pres Evans, "Collaboration for Inclusive Economic Development",

FRB Boston, audience Q&A (time permitting). 1400ET

- Nov 29 Oct farm prices 1500ET

- Nov 29 28-Nov Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Nov 30 NY FRB Pres Williams, "Global Economy: Addressing a Future Downturn",

80th Plenary Meet, Group of Thirty, NY 0900ET

- Nov 30 Nov ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (58.21, --) 0900ET

- Nov 30 Nov MNI Chicago PMI (58.4, 58.5) 0945ET

- Nov 30 Q4 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+2.66%, --) 1100ET

- Nov 30 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+2.5%, --) 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]