US Crude Exports To China To Hit Multi-Months High In March

US crude exports to China in March are headed for their highest in nearly two-and-half-years, spurred by a recovery in Chinese demand and competitive prices compared with Middle East supplies according to Refinitiv data.

• At least 14mn barrels of crude will load in the US in March for China, the highest volume since October 2020, with some barrels likely to spill over to April, shiptracking data from Refinitiv, Vortexa and Kpler showed.
• The exports are expected to stay elevated in the second and third quarters, especially after WTI US crude prices slumped below $70/bbl this week, stretching its discount to Middle East benchmark Dubai to about $10/barrel, the widest since August, according to Reuters data and analysts.
• China’s oil demand is set rise by 710kbpd year on year this year according to OPEC data.
• “China has emerged as the de facto global swing supplier, with the capacity to absorb huge amounts of excess oil production at times of oversupply and draw down its stocks when markets tighten,” Antoine Halff, analyst Kayrros, said.
• “With flat prices dropping, China is likely to go bargain hunting, stoking further interest in US barrels, particularly as China exits refinery maintenance in the latter half of Q2, driving on demand,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.