US Daily Oil Summary: Crude Production Revised up for 2023

The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook revised up crude production for 2023 to 12.93m b/d, up 30k b/d from its forecast in November.

• However, it revised down US crude oil production in 2024 to 13.11m b/d, down 0.3% on the previous estimate.
• WTI’s price for 2023 is set for $77.63/b, down 2.2% on November’s estimate of $79.41/b, according to The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook.
• US retail gasoline and diesel prices fell in the week to Dec. 8, according to the EIA. Retail gasoline prices declined by 2.9% to $3.014/gal while diesel prices fell by 2.6% to $3.987/gal.
• Several Gulf of Mexico crude oil pipelines including one operated by Main Pass Oil Gathering Co. remain shut after an oil leak off the coast of Louisianna due to a subsea pipeline rupture according to a statement from the US Coast Guard.
• USD: Despite some volatile price action over the US inflation data, the USD index sits 0.25% lower on the session as we approach the APAC crossover. Potential profit-taking evident as resistance at 104.26 failed to give way across the Friday/Monday sessions and as markets await tomorrows FOMC meeting.
• US Core CPI came in very much as expected in November at 0.285% M/M but Supercore (core services ex OER & rents) was slightly on the higher side at 0.44% M/M.
• FED: Inflation Report Underpins Likelihood FOMC Maintains Caution Tomorrow - No unambiguous story emerges from the November CPI report - which probably means that the FOMC will still play things relatively cautiously at Wednesday's decision/statement/release of projection materials vs an outright hawkish/dovish report.