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US Daily Oil Summary: Shale Drillers to Continue Production Rise

OIL

US shale drillers will continue to raise oil production for years before stalling around 2028, stymying OPEC+ hopes for a faster fall-off in US production, according to HSBC, cited by Bloomberg.

  • A Reuters survey expects US crude stocks to have fallen by 2.3m bbl last week.
  • US retail gasoline prices rose to $3.310/gal in the week to June 14, up 0.4%, according to the EIA cited by Bloomberg.
  • OPIS modelled U.S. gasoline demand last week at around 9mn bpd according to its survey of volumes actually pumped.
  • USD: Early greenback support evaporated after this morning's lower than expected US retail sales coupled with down revisions to the prior release. Off lows after midday the USD index has fully reversed Friday's upswing while momentum has slowed ahead Wednesday's Juneteenth Federal Holiday.
  • Industrial production rose 0.9% M/M in May, well above the 0.3% expected and 0.0% (unrev) prior. Manufacturing production likewise rose 0.9% (-0.4% prior rev from -0.3%; March rev to -0.1% from +0.2%). Utilities jumped by 1.6% M/M (4.0% prior rev from 2.8%, though March was rev down sharply to -0.3% from the previous +1.6% estimate).
  • MNI:US MAY RETAIL SALES +0.1%; EX-MOTOR VEH -0.1%
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