US DATA
- Initial jobless claims saw a marked improvement in the week to Oct 19 but continuing claims offered a more cautious take in the week to Oct 12, a payrolls reference period.
- Continuing claims surprisingly increased to 1896k (sa, cons 1875k) after 1869k (initial 1867k), easily through recent highs of 1871k in July for fresh highs since Nov 2021.
- The 1897k compares with 1827k in last month’s payrolls reference week and 1860k the month prior.
- Some caveats to the latest weekly increase: Of the 37k NSA weekly increase in nationwide continuing claims, Michigan saw continuing claims rise 17k (from 40.6k to 57.9k) and latest initial claims suggest autos-related shutdowns have since abated.
- Further, after seeing no sign of hurricane disruption in recent weeks, the six states most affected by Helene and Milton saw continuing claims rise from 133k to 140k, even if this 7k increase is modest.
- In all, it suggests that numbers of newly unemployed may have been lower than expected but re-hiring prospects could have come under pressure again even if perhaps not quite to the extent that the data suggest.
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