US DATA
- Continuing claims offered a more dovish angle compared to initial claims in the week to Oct 26, surprisingly increasing to 1892k (sa, cons 1873k) after a downward revised 1853k (initial 1862k).
- There’s been some volatility in the series of late, but by more than reversing the prior week’s surprise decline it’s now at fresh highs since Nov 2021 (the top left chart below puts this into context).
- Within the continuing claims details, the non-seasonally adjusted level is right at the top of typical levels for the time of year.
- Initial claims no longer show signs of hurricane disruption but that’s not the case here, with clearly some lingering issues leaving continuing claims some 15-20k higher than they would otherwise be.
- Elsewhere, Michigan continuing claims remain higher than is usual although to less extent than in recent weeks, potentially linked to Stellantis layoffs and some auto shutdowns.
- In all, the initial and continuing claims data combined continue to point to further, steady moderation in the labor market that is more down to a slower pace of re-hiring instead of sharper layoffs.
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