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US DATA: Core Goods Orders Outpace Shipments Again But Trend Still Tepid

US DATA
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Durable goods orders fared better than expected, with both headline and core orders beating expectations in the preliminary September release and a downward revision to Aug being confined to volatile items.

  • Overall durable goods orders -0.8% M/M (cons -1.0%) after a downward revised -0.8% (initial 0.0%).
  • Core orders 0.5% M/M (cons 0.1) in Sept after an unrevised 0.3% M/M.
  • Core shipments -0.3% M/M (cons 0.0) in Sept after an unrevised -0.1% M/M.
  • Core shipments last increased in June and have declined in six of the past eight months, which sees trend growth of -2.8% annualized on a 3M/3M basis.
  • Core orders are however pointing to some upside ahead, having firmed to 0.5% annualized on the same 3M/3M basis having bottomed at -2.1% annualized as of July.
  • As has been the case for some time, the industrial trend remains at best tepid but isn’t as bad as ISM manufacturing firmly in contraction territory would ordinarily imply. 
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Durable goods orders fared better than expected, with both headline and core orders beating expectations in the preliminary September release and a downward revision to Aug being confined to volatile items.

  • Overall durable goods orders -0.8% M/M (cons -1.0%) after a downward revised -0.8% (initial 0.0%).
  • Core orders 0.5% M/M (cons 0.1) in Sept after an unrevised 0.3% M/M.
  • Core shipments -0.3% M/M (cons 0.0) in Sept after an unrevised -0.1% M/M.
  • Core shipments last increased in June and have declined in six of the past eight months, which sees trend growth of -2.8% annualized on a 3M/3M basis.
  • Core orders are however pointing to some upside ahead, having firmed to 0.5% annualized on the same 3M/3M basis having bottomed at -2.1% annualized as of July.
  • As has been the case for some time, the industrial trend remains at best tepid but isn’t as bad as ISM manufacturing firmly in contraction territory would ordinarily imply.