- Yen was pressured early, following the LDP coalition election loss from Sunday. A continuing rise in US yields contributed to the move.
- US Tsys futures have continued the sell-off from Friday. The Trump trade could be largely behind the move, with betting markets now showing he has his largest lead since the Sept debate against Harris.
- Oil prices have corrected sharply following comments from leaders in Iran and Israel that imply that neither side want an escalation in hostilities following Israel’s attack on Iranian military targets on the weekend.
- Looking ahead, there are few events or data today. The October US Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Spain’s September retail sales print. The ECB’s de Guindos speaks.
MARKETS
- Tsys futures have continued the sell-off from Friday. The Trump trade could be largely behind the move, with betting markets now showing he has he largest lead since the Sept debate against Harris. Polymarket sees the odds now 65.1% vs 34.9%, although they now have Michigan closer than last week. While RealClearPolitics Poll average, has Trump in front 48.5 vs 48.4 for the first time since Aug 4th.
- Outside of Trump pushing further ahead in betting markets, there hasn't been much in the way of headlines, oil has plunged following cooling tensions in the middle east, although this did little to support tsys.
- Volumes have surged today, TU is -02⅛ at 103-02, while TY is -09+ at 110-24+, we trade just off session lows.
- As noted earlier, late Friday traders were purchasing 10yr tsys options targeting a rise in yields to around 4.5% ahead of the Nov. 1 expiry.
- Tsys curve continues to bear-steepen, the 10yr is +3.6bps at 4.276%, while the 30yr yield is now testing the July 24 highs of 4.54%. The 2s30s curve has steepened 1.5bps to 40.50, although the curve is still about 20bps off its recent highs made late September.
- There is little on the data calendar for the day ahead.
POLITICAL RISK: State Polls Continue To Point To Close US Election
The latest analysis for the November 5 US presidential election shows that the outcome of voting in the seven key swing states remains very close and difficult to call. Thus just over a week out from the vote, the contest remains tight.
- The average of national polls has the Democrat’s Harris ahead of the Republican’s Trump by around a percentage point with the BBC average of polls at 48 to 47 and the Wikipedia average at 48.6% to 47.3%. See the MNI POLITICAL RISK policy tracker.
- The Economist’s simulation of the probability of each candidate winning has Trump on 55% with 277 electoral votes and Harris 45% with 261. 270 are needed to win the presidency. These estimates are also consistent with a tight race.
- Three late October state polls show that neither candidate is a clear favourite to win any of the seven swing states. All three surveys said that there’s an even chance of either Trump or Harris winning Michigan (15 votes), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (19). Three indicated that Trump should win North Carolina (16) and two polls suggested he is also likely to gain Arizona (11) and Georgia (16).
- The Economist probabilities have Trump in front in all states but Michigan.
- These states are important as in 2016 Trump won all but Nevada and in 2020 Biden gained all except North Carolina.
GLOBAL MACRO: Global Trade Growth Continues To Improve In August
The August CPB global merchandise trade data was positive despite previous monetary policy tightening, soft manufacturing PMIs and shipping disruptions. Global trade volumes rose 1.4% m/m to be up 2.7% y/y after 1.8% in July, the fastest pace since October 2022. The 1.9% m/m rise in global exports was driven by both emerging (EM) and developed markets (DM). The data is backward looking but 3-month export momentum is positive for both EM and DM.
- Global exports rose 3.7% y/y up from 2.7% y/y in July with EM continuing to outperform DM. They began to recover around 15 months ago and this trend has continued through 2024. The Baltic Freight index is pointing to a stabilisation in global goods trade growth though.
Global goods trade volumes y/y% vs Baltic Freight Index
- DM export growth is recovering rising 1.7% m/m in August to be up 3.7% y/y, the fastest in almost two years. All major DM regions saw a pick up in annual export growth, except the euro area which declined 3.1% y/y (-2.1% Aug). The US (5.4% y/y) and advanced Asia ex Japan (+9.9%) outperformed.
- EM shipments grew 2.5% m/m to be up 6.9% y/y after 6.1% the previous month. The strength isn’t uniform across regions though with China’s 14.1% y/y driving the overall. EM Asia ex China slowed to +3.6% y/y from 6.8% and Latin America to 3.8% from 7.3%, whereas eastern Europe picked up to 2.9% from 1.0%.
- The IMF is forecasting global goods & services trade volumes to rise 3.1% y/y in 2024 increasing to 3.4% in 2025.
DM vs EM global goods export volumes y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
GLOBAL: Improving Global IP Momentum, PMIs & Metals Contradictory On Outlook
Global IP growth has gradually trended higher since the end of 2022 and the CPB measure maintained that in August. It rose 0.4% m/m to be up 1.8% y/y after 1.9% in July but 3-month momentum picked up to 2.6% annualised, its highest in almost a year. However the JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in September, the lowest since October 2023, and preliminary October PMIs showed the sector continuing to contract across the G3.
Global IP outlook
- The global manufacturing PMI peaked at 51 in May and the deterioration since then is suggesting that global IP growth will also slow. But the LME metal index which picked up in September and October and remains elevated is pointing to IP continuing to stay around the 2% rate, so are iron ore prices.
Global IP y/y% vs LME metal price index
- The October manufacturing PMI is released on November 4 but preliminary data point to another reading below the breakeven-50 level. PMIs remained weak this month even if in some cases the contraction in activity lessened moderately.
- The US PMI improved slightly to 47.8 from 47.3 while Japan deteriorated to 49 from 49.7. The sector in the euro area remained depressed at 45.9 (up from 45), while in the UK activity remained slightly positive at 50.3 but fell from 51.5.
JGBS: Cheaper, Looks Past Political Uncertainty, 2Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures are weaker but off session cheaps, -14 compared to settlement levels. Futures opened sharply higher after weekend lower house elections showed the LDP coalition had lost its majority. However, that move was quickly reversed. PM Ishiba is currently giving a press briefing.
- The move away from session bests had been assisted by cash US tsys, which are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, extending Friday’s modest cheapening. Market participants will be looking for US inflation and payroll figures this week to guide on the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 5bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a steepening bias. The benchmark 2-year yield is unchanged at 0.454% ahead of tomorrow's supply.
- Swap rates are 1-6bps higher, with a steepening bias, for maturities beyond the 2-year. Swap spreads are wider.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Jobless Rate and Job-To-Applicant Ratio data alongside 2-year supply.
- The BoJ Policy Meeting is on Wednesday and Thursday, with the board likely to leave its policy interest rate at 0.25% amid unstable financial markets and uncertainties over a US soft-landing. Attention shifting to further wage data and other board communications could offer insight into the chances of a December increase.
POLITICAL RISK: Japan Political Uncertainty Rises As LDP Loses Majority
Japan faces a period of political uncertainty after weekend lower house elections from Sunday showed the LDP coalition had lost its majority.
- Local media has reported that the LDP has fallen to 191 seats (losing 56), while its partner, the Komeito Party had 24 seats, so a total of 215 seats, short of the 233 required for a majority (per Yomiuri, see this link).
- The second largest holder of seats is the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which gained 50 to bring its total to 148 seats. Its leader, Yoshihiko Noda will reportedly discuss forming coalitions to remove LDP from power, but is likely to struggle to get to 233 level required.
- Some coalition possibilities for the LDP include the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) see this link. Although what comprises on policy that need to maintain a coalition will be key market watch points.
- The DPP reportedly said yesterday that they won't join an LDP coalition.
- Another possibility is the Innovation Party, which reportedly won 35 seats. Again differences in policy outcomes are likely to be in focus. This party opposes further BoJ rate hikes.
- Still these minor parties may help the LDP coalition stay on as a minority government.
AUSSIE BONDS: Near Worst Levels, Pressured By US Tsys, Data Light Session
ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -6.0) are weaker and near Sydney session lows on a data/newsflow light day.
- The local market has been pressured by cash US tsys, which are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, extending Friday’s modest cheapening. Market participants will be looking for US inflation and payroll figures this week to guide on the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
- Cash ACGBs are 6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +21bps.
- Swap rates are 6bps higher.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -7.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps firmer for 2025 meetings, with the later meetings showing the greatest increase. The market is pricing in a modest cumulative 4bps of easing by the end of the year, positioning the expected cash rate at its highest level since late July.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty ahead of Q3 CPI data on Wednesday.
- There is a 70% 3-year correlation between NZ and Australian underlying inflation down from 95% in H1 2022. NZ’s moderated to 3.4% from 3.6%, significantly less than the 1.1pp drop in annual headline inflation. Australia’s trimmed mean is forecast to moderate to 3.5% from 3.9% in Q3, which would still be higher than NZ’s.
AUSTRALIA: CPI May Follow NZ Soft Goods/Robust Services Pattern
Australia’s Q3 CPI prints Wednesday and sometimes information can be found in the NZ data released two weeks earlier. However, the 3-year rolling correlations for core, services and non-tradeables have been trending down over the year and Australia’s headline will be impacted by temporary factors. In contrast, the RBA remains “vigilant to upside risks to inflation”, whereas the RBNZ has cut rates 75bp since August and said inflation is “converging” on the mid-point.
- There is a 70% 3-year correlation between NZ and Australian underlying inflation down from 95% in H1 2022. NZ’s moderated to 3.4% from 3.6%, significantly less than the 1.1pp drop in annual headline inflation. Australia’s trimmed mean is forecast to moderate to 3.5% from 3.9% in Q3, which would still be higher than NZ’s.
- The RBA is focussed on the domestically-driven services component. The 3-year correlation dropped to 60% in Q2 but NZ services inflation posted a strong quarterly rise of 1.5% in Q3 due to rents and council rates, even though the annual rate moderated 0.8pp to 4.5%. Thus, there is a chance that Australian services inflation remains elevated in Q3. Another 1% q/q rise would keep the annual rate steady at around 4.5%, anything higher would see it rise.
- The moderation in NZ Q3 inflation was predominantly driven by tradeables prices which fell 0.2% q/q and 1.6% y/y. However, non-tradeables picked up to 1.3% q/q from 0.9%. The 3-year correlation with Australia is around 90% and 75% respectively, and so soft tradeables and robust non-tradeables prices could be repeated in Australia. NZ core non-tradeables only saw a slight improvement to 4.8% y/y from 4.9%.
Australia vs NZ CPI services y/y%
STIR: RBA Dated OIS Firmer Ahead Of Wednesday's Q3 CPI Data
RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps firmer for 2025 meetings, with the later meetings showing the greatest increase.
- Going into Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release, the market is pricing in a modest cumulative 4bps of easing by the end of the year, positioning the expected cash rate at its highest level since late July.
Figure 1: Official Rate: Current Vs. Year-End Market Expectations
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
FOREX: USD Surge Continues Ahead Of US Election
The USD bull run continues, as the US election comes into focus. The BBDXY index sits near 1264 in latest dealings, fresh highs back to early July of this year.
- Yen weakness dominated early, amid fallout from the LDP coalition losing its majority from Sunday's lower house elections. We are now in a period of uncertainty in terms of how the government and policy agenda will look. Some type of agreement between the LDP coalition with minor parties is likely to needed to pass legislation, if a formal alliance cannot be struck.
- Compounding yen losses was a further surge in UST yields. The US 2yr yield got to 4.14%, but sits back at 4.12% now, while the 10yr got above 4.28% but is now back under 4.27%. Focus continues to be on next week's US election, with betting markets still firmly in Trump's favor but latest polls point to a close race.
- USD/JPY got to highs of 153.88, but sits back at 153.45/50, still off by around 0.75% for the session. The tick down from US yields from session highs likely helping this move in yen.
- AUD and NZD have softened as the session has progressed. AUD/USD is at 0.6580, fresh lows back to August of this year, while NZD/USD is at 0.5960, also fresh lows back to the first half of August.
- Oil prices slumped as the market took some comfort from Israel striking military targets in Iran over the weekend (rather than oil or nuclear facilities). Still, this did little to impact UST yields in the first part of trade.
- Regional equity markets are mixed, with Japan seeing gains despite the weekend election result, while aggregate China/HK markets are down, despite signs of improving property sales in China.
- Looking ahead, there are few events or data today. The October US Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Spain’s September retail sales print. The ECB’s de Guindos speaks.
FOREX: CFTC Positioning Update Again Shows Strong USD Bias
The CFTC positioning update from Friday showed a continued shift towards the USD, albeit more so in the asset manager space than from leveraged accounts. The table below presents the weekly change and outright position for each currency as at the end of last Tuesday (22nd of Oct). Exiting EUR longs was again a feature, for both leveraged names and asset managers.
- Leveraged names are now back to outright shorts in terms of the EUR. Only modest adds to longs for AUD and NZD went against the USD in this space.
- For asset managers there was heavy selling across JPY, EUR and GBP. Selling pressures were evident across the other currencies, except for MXN.
- In total, we had a further 126k in contracts move in favor of the USD, after the prior week's 163k surge.
- This fits with last week's price action around broader USD indices continuing to track higher, amidst a supportive yield backdrop. Resilient data outcomes, along with US election risks are aiding the yield backdrop.
Table 1: CFTC Positioning By Currency/By Type
| Leveraged Contracts | Asset manager Contracts | |||
| Weekly Change | Outright Position | Weekly Change | Outright Position | |
| JPY | -2687 | 6826 | -28817 | -19486 |
| EUR | -23059 | -10156 | -29519 | 193120 |
| GBP | -2928 | 55850 | -16919 | -7329 |
| AUD | 3863 | 15877 | -2659 | -12763 |
| NZD | 3866 | 9355 | -5206 | -5840 |
| CAD | -8890 | -64901 | -8320 | -131169 |
| CHF | -3577 | -8167 | -2735 | -25061 |
| MXN | -2252 | -8800 | 3594 | 44027 |
Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg
OPTIONS: FX Volumes Skewed To JPY Calls, AUD Puts
With yen the weakest performer in the G10 FX space (off 0.80%%), it is not surprising to see it dominating the FX option space. USD/JPY FX options accounting for about 38% of total volumes in the first part of Monday trade (per DTCC).
- USD/JPY sits at 153.50/55 in latest dealings, not far from session highs (153.88). A break above 154.00 will likely see late July highs at 155.22 targeted.
- Still, the larger volume contracts have been skewed in favor of JPY. A notional +200mn call on JPY with a 145.5 strike (expiry on Nov 4) has been evident. We have also seen a number of 157.00 strike calls on JPY go through (expiry towards the end of Nov). Likewise for calls on JPY with strikes at 148.90/95 ($50mln notional).
- In terms of other FX option volumes, we have seen some notable AUD/USD puts at 0.6465 and at 0.6300 go through for notional A$100mln). A EUR/USD put at 1.065 strike (EUR100mln) for expiry on Nov 14 has also gone through.
EQUITIES: APAC Equities Mixed, Japanese Equities Surge As Yen Hits New Lows
Asian equities are mixed today with political developments in Japan, economic data from China, and global energy prices contributing to market moves. The yen weakened to a three-month low, hitting 153.87, after Japan's ruling coalition failed to secure a parliamentary majority, raising speculation about political uncertainty and the BoJ maintaining its ultra-low interest rates for longer, the weakness in the yen has seen Japanese equities surge today.
- Despite the political turmoil in Japan, investors remain optimistic about Japan's outlook due to potential government spending, structural corporate reforms, and its key role in regional supply chains. Japanese exporters are the top performers today, with Tokyo Electron up 2.80%. The Nikkei is up 1.75%, while the TOPIX is 1.40% higher.
- China and Hong Kong markets are mixed today, the Shanghai A Shares Index held up well despite a continued decline in industrial profits, as investors were optimistic that corporate earnings could exceed low expectations, over 300 Chinese firms are set to announce earnings this week. However, concerns lingered over the lack of specifics on China’s stimulus measures, with Vice Finance Minister Liao Min reiterating that the focus remains on meeting GDP growth targets. Investors are awaiting next week's NPC meeting for potential sentiment-boosting announcements. The HSI was last 0.10% lower, while CSI 300 was 0.35% lower.
- Taiwan equities are lower today, with semiconductor prices lower. TSMC down 0.95% & Hon Hai down 0.70% have contributed the most to the losses in the TAIEX which was last 0.60% lower. South Korean equities are higher after Samsung surged 3.60%, the KOSPI is 1.10%, while the KOSDAQ has jumped 1.75%.
- Crude oil prices plunged by more than 5% after Israeli strikes on Iran avoided key oil facilities, easing concerns about supply disruptions. Energy shares across APAC has dropped today.
- Australia's ASX 200 is little changed today, gains in metals & miners have been offset by losses in financials. New Zealand is out today.
- US equity futures rose as investors brace for a key week of economic data, including growth reports from the US, Eurozone, and China, as well as the US payrolls report.
ASIA STOCKS: Taiwan Continues To Benefit From TSMC Results
The past week saw outflows across most countries, with the exception of Taiwan, who benefitted from strong TSMC results.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$2m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$869m. YTD flows remain positive at + $8.028b. The 5-day average is -$174m, worse than the 20-day average of -$134m and the 100-day average of -$66m.
- Taiwan: Experienced inflows of + $539m yesterday, totaling + $869m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$10.145b. The 5-day average is + $174m, better than the 20-day average of + $143m but worse than the 100-day average of -$154m.
- India: Saw outflows of -$575m on Thursday, with a total outflow of -$962m over the past 5 days. YTD inflows stand at + $1.584b. The 5-day average is -$192m, better than the 20-day average of -$458m but slightly worse than the 100-day average of + $45m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$39m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$231m. YTD flows remain positive at + $2.692b. The 5-day average is -$46m, similar to the 20-day average of -$38m and near the 100-day average of + $30m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$1m yesterday, totaling -$91m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3.212b. The 5-day average is -$18m, better than the 20-day average of -$38m but worse than the 100-day average of -$10m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$15m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$45m. YTD flows stand at + $608m. The 5-day average is -$9m, better than the 20-day average of -$13m and close to the 100-day average of + $7m.
- Philippines: Saw no change in flows yesterday, with net outflows of -$4m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are positive at + $93m. The 5-day average is -$1m, in line with the 20-day average of + $4m and the 100-day average of + $5m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Corrects Following Israel’s Restrained Attack On Iran
Oil prices have corrected sharply following comments from leaders in Iran and Israel that imply that neither side want an escalation in hostilities following Israel’s attack on Iranian military targets on the weekend. The crude market had been concerned that Iran’s oil infrastructure would be targeted and so the geopolitical risk premium is being unwound in relief. Gaza ceasefire talks have also restarted.
- WTI is down 4.6% to $68.50/bbl today after falling to around $67.80 on the open before rising to $68.84. It is holding above initial support at $68.17. The US dollar is also weighing on oil as the BBDXY index has risen another 0.2% today after 0.3% on Friday as US yields continue to rise.
- Brent is 4.4% lower at $72.67/bbl after sinking to $72.00, below initial support at $72.50, but the break was not sustained.
- Citigroup has cut its Brent forecast $12 to $60/bbl 12-months ahead due to the reduction in the Middle East geopolitical risk premium, according to Bloomberg. Its now to 3-months projection has been reduced $4 to $70/bbl. Citigroup has also decreased its estimate of a significant jump in prices to a 10% probability from 20%.
- Weak industrial profit data in China is also likely adding to pressure on oil. The market has been concerned for some time about the strength of demand in the world’s largest crude importer. With the risk of disruption to Iranian supply diminishing, the focus is likely to return to China.
- There are few events or data today. The October US Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Spain’s September retail sales print. The ECB’s de Guindos speaks.
GOLD: Gives Back Friday’s Gain
Gold is 0.5% lower in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.4% higher at $2747.56 on Friday.
- The yellow metal finished 0.9% higher on the week, albeit below Wednesday’s record high of $2,758. Nevertheless, it was the third weekly gain for gold as safe-haven demand remained high ahead of the US election and amid elevated geopolitical tensions.
- However, today’s weakness may reflect the fact that Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend appeared to be more restrained than many expected.
- Market participants will be looking for US inflation and payrolls figures this week to guide on the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Lower rates are typically positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, trend conditions for gold remain bullish, reinforced by last week’s extension. Sights are still on $2,767.1 next, a Fibonacci projection point, ahead of the $2,800.0 handle.
CHINA: PBOC’s Revamp of Policy Tools Continues.
- The PBOC has advised that it will include outright reverse repurchase agreements as a monetary tool, supplementing the daily OMOs.
- The PBOC will conduct a monthly outright reverse repo direct from primary dealers targeting government bonds but also including selective corporate debt.
- Given outright repo involves the exchange of bonds, the operations appear to be a further expansion of policy aimed at modernizing and supplementing liquidity in interbank markets
- Given a lot of liquidity is tied up in longer dated securities it will prepare the market for the expected surge of issuance coming by regional and central governments.
THAILAND: 2024 YTD Trade Deficit More Than Double 2023’s
September Thai customs merchandise trade data were weaker than expected with the surplus widening significantly less than forecast. It rose to $394mn from $265mn while imports outpaced exports by a wide margin. USDTHB has been steady in response to the data at 33.79 after rising 1.9% over last week.
- 2024 has seen a YTD merchandise trade deficit of almost $6bn compared with $2.3bn in the year to September 2023.
- Exports rose only 1.1% y/y in September down from 7% y/y, despite an 8.8% y/y pickup in rice exports. On a positive note, the 3-month average improved to 7.8% y/y in September compared with 4.5% in June.
- The Commerce Ministry continues to expect exports to meet its 1-2% 2024 growth target with a pickup in Q4.
- Imports increased a strong 9.9% y/y up from August’s 8.9%, which is implying robust domestic demand. The increase in the 3-month average to 10.6% y/y in September, highest in two years, from 2.4% in June emphasises this.
- The balance of payments trade data for September is released on Thursday.
Thailand customs merchandise exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma
- The PBOC has advised that it will include outright reverse repurchase agreements as a monetary tool, supplementing the daily OMOs (source: MNI _-Market News).
- Domestic Demand the Focus According to Vice Finance Minister (source: MNI – Market News)
- China’s equity indexes were mixed with the CSI300 down whilst Shanghai and Shenzhen had positive days.
2yr 1.518% 5yr 1.84% 10yr 2.162% 30yr 2.361%
ASIA FX: Won Outperforms As Verbal Jawboning On FX Continues
In North East Asia FX, won gains have been a standout. Spot USD/KRW sits under 1385 in latest dealings, around 0.40% stronger for the session. Recent highs in the pair rest at 1391.6.
- Won gains have likely been spurred by a pick up in rhetoric around FX weakness from the authorities. Both the BoK Governor and FinMin remarking on volatility over recent sessions. The BoK Governor also stating it could impact the policy outlook. Such remarks may be encouraging some exit out of long USD/KRW positions. The won has still lost 5% for Oct, even after today's modest rebound.
- A better equity tone as the onshore session for South Korean stocks has unfolded, with markets up over 1%, has also likely helped at the margins.
- USD/CNH got to a fresh high for Oct at 7.1498 in early dealings. Broader USD sentiment was stronger amid yen losses (post the weekend election result) and a firmer UST yield backdrop. However, we have since stabilized, last near 7.1455/60. Dips towards 7.1400 this afternoon have been supported.
- USD/TWD has been relatively steady, holding close to 7.05/10 in latest dealings.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 28/10/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** |  GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** |  US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 28/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 28/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 28/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 28/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 28/10/2024 | 1945/2045 |  EU | ECB's De Guindos speech and Q&A at Foros Reflexión | |
| 29/10/2024 | 2330/0830 | * |  JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 29/10/2024 | 0001/0001 | * |  GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | * |  DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | GDP |
| 29/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/10/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE M4 |
| 29/10/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 29/10/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 29/10/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** |  US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 29/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** |  US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 29/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** |  US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 29/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** |  US | FHFA Home Price Index |