US DATA
- The October flash PMIs fared better than expected across the main sectors as both manufacturing and services indexes increased.
- Manufacturing: 47.8 (cons 47.5) after 47.3
- Services: 55.3 (cons 55.0) after 55.2
- Composite: 54.3 (cons 53.8) after 54.0.
- The S&P Global press release notes the survey signalling “a further solid rise in business activity to mark a robust start to the fourth quarter” (see the full release here).
- Ahead of next week’s payrolls report, the non-replacement of leavers rather than layoffs supports the recent trend differences in initial vs continuing jobless claims: “Employment fell for a third straight month in October, though the decline was again only very modest and less than reported in August and September. The drop in payrolls was more pronounced in the manufacturing sector, though even here the drop in headcounts was smaller than reported in September. The decline in service jobs was meanwhile only very modest, and often linked to the non-replacement of leavers rather than layoffs.”
- Soft prices charged: “October saw average prices charged for goods and services rise at a sharply reduced rate, registering the smallest monthly increase since May 2020. The moderation represented a contrast to the uptick seen in September and pushed the rate of inflation below the prepandemic long-run average. The rate of selling price inflation cooled especially sharply in the service sector, down to its lowest for almost four-and-a-half years, but also fell in manufacturing.”
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