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Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 2
MNI BRIEF: China Likely To Grow By 5% In 2024 - Advisor
US Data Forecast Focus: April Retail Sales Seen +0.3%
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT May 15/07:35 EST May 15
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by further 0.3% in
April after a strong 0.6% gain in March. Seasonally adjusted industry motor
vehicle sales slipped in April, but AAA reported that gasoline prices rose
sharply in mid-April from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise
0.5% excluding motor vehicles after 0.2% gains in the previous two months. The
impact of the Federal income tax cuts and stronger consumer confidence may
finally appear in the data.
Analysts sharply underestimated retail sales growth in March after
overestimates in the previous two months. Misses for past April data have been
mixed, but there have been overestimates in three of the last four years.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
Retail Sales forecast:
Median 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
Range High 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
Range Low 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
Actual result 0.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 #N/A
Median-Actual -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.3 #N/A
Historical comparison: Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.6
Range High 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.5 0.8
Range Low -0.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 0.3 0.4
Actual result 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.4
Median-Actual 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.2
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
Retail ex-autos Forecast:
Median 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5
Range High 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7
Range Low 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4
Actual result: 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 #N/A
Median-Actual -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.1 #N/A
Historical comparison: Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5
Range High 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9
Range Low -0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3
Actual result 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3
Median-Actual 0.1 -0.4 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.2
Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,
saar 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.0
NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,
saar 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.0 6.9
*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include
GM
AAA gasoline prices ($/gal) 2.456 2.491 2.570 2.523 2.658
mo/mo pct change #N/A 1.4 3.2 -1.8 5.4
Consumer confidence 123.1 124.3 130.0 127.0 128.7
Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6
mo:*
Automobile 13.0 13.6 12.9 11.5 13.2
Home 7.4 6.0 6.4 6.0 7.8
Major appliance 59.3 50.1 52.1 49.5 54.3
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.