US Data Forecast Focus: July Final Demand PPI Seen +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in 

July after a small 0.1% rise in June. Food prices are expected to slow 

after a 0.6% gain in June, but energy prices are forecast to rebound 

after a 0.5% decline in the previous month on a return to more 

seasonable temperatures. Likewise, PPI excluding food and energy is 

forecast to rise 0.2% after a modest 0.1% gain in June. 

     Analysts slightly underestimated overall final demand PPI in June, 

while PPI ex. food and energy was correctly estimated. The misses in the 

last 10 July releases have roughly balanced between overestimates and 

underestimates. Forecasts for core PPI have been fairly accurate, with 

misses also evenly split. 

                        Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                    0.1     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2

 Range High                0.2     0.1     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.3

 Range Low                -0.1    -0.2     0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.0

Actual result              0.3    -0.1     0.5     0.0     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast       -0.2     0.1    -0.3     0.0    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison   Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                    0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1     0.1

 Range High                0.6     0.6     0.6     0.4     0.2     0.1

 Range Low                -0.5     0.0     0.1    -0.1    -0.1     0.0

Actual result              0.2     0.3     0.0     0.1     0.2    -0.4

 vs median forecast       -0.1    -0.1     0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.5

                        Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                    0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range High                0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                 0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.2     0.1     0.1

Actual result              0.3     0.0     0.4     0.3     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast       -0.1     0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:  Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                    0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                0.3     0.3     0.3     0.5     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                 0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0

Actual result              0.4     0.4     0.1     0.2     0.3    -0.3

 less median forecast     -0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.5

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                     Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index (% chg)    3.4     2.0     2.1    -0.1    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              70.5    68.5    60.5    55.0    62.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           53.5    57.6    49.2    52.1    55.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]