US Data Forecast Focus: July ISM Mfg Index Seen At 56.9>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to slip 

back to a reading of 56.9 in July after a solid gain to 57.8 in July. 

Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Empire, Kansas City 

and Philadelphia Fed readings declining, but the Richmond Fed index up. 

The flash reading for the July Markit manufacturing survey was up from 

June. 

     Analysts underestimated the headline ISM index in nine of the last 

ten months. Recent July data over the last 10 years have been evenly 

split between overestimates and underestimates. 

Forecast:                Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

 Median                    56.0    57.0    56.5    54.4    55.5    56.9

 Range High                58.0    61.0    57.0    55.6    56.8    57.1

 Range Low                 55.0    56.4    55.6    53.8    54.5    55.0

Actual result              57.7    57.2    54.8    54.9    57.8    #N/A

 vs median forecast        -1.7    -0.2     1.7    -0.5    -2.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                    54.5    50.5    52.2    56.0    53.7    53.0

 Range High                56.0    51.5    53.5    57.5    54.2    53.4

 Range Low                 53.0    48.5    51.5    55.0    53.0    52.0

Actual result              50.9    49.8    55.4    57.1    52.7    52.6

 vs median forecast         3.6     0.7    -3.2    -1.1     1.0     0.4

                         Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

 MNI Chicago               57.4    57.7    58.3    59.4    65.7    58.9

 Phila. Fed Index          43.3    32.8    22.0    38.8    27.6    19.5

 Empire State Index        18.7    16.4     5.2    -1.0    19.8     9.8

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]