US Data Forecast Focus: July Payrolls Seen +163,000

     Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 163,000 in July after a

stronger-than-expected 224,000 rise in June. The unemployment rate is expected

to hold steady at 3.7%, while hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.2%, and

the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for another month.

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls in June after the sharp May

overestimate. There is no clear risk from past July data, as there have been

five overestimates and five underestimates in the last 10 years.

Forecast:                         Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19  Jul-19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Median                               183     170     190     185     170     163

Range High                           220     243     250     208     205     212

Range Low                            141     145     165     145     125     100

Actual original result                20     196     263      75     224    #N/A

Median-Actual                        163     -26     -73     110     -54    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17  Jul-18

Median                               185     230     225     188     181     190

Range High                           205     255     250     200     220     207

Range Low                            160     200     200     140     170     182

Actual original result               162     209     215     255     209     157

Median-Actual                         23      21      10     -67     -28      33

                                  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19  Jul-19

ISM Mfg Employment                  52.3    57.5    52.4    53.7    54.5    51.7

ISM Nonmfg Employment               55.2    55.9    53.7    58.1    55.0      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful              45.7    42.5    46.5    45.3    44.0    46.2

Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap           34.0    28.7    33.2    33.5    28.2    33.4

Net change from survey week:

Initial claims (Chg thsnd)            -4       3     -23      19       5      -1

4-week mvg avg                         7      -9     -19      19      -2    UNCH

Continuing claims                     66     -18    -101       8      32     -17

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)            -1.2    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)           220     158     255      46     112     156

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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